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Tuesday, June 05, 2007

Recent Trends In World Gem Production

There are no reliable statistics on gemstone production for many reasons, but Thomas Yager has compiled nearly-accurate statistics on the state of the global colored stone gemstones production.

Thomas R Yager (US Geological Survey) writes:

Estimates of world colored gemstone production are inherently difficult because of the fragmentary nature of the industry, the lack of government oversight in many countries where colored gemstones are mined, and the wide variation in quality of the production. Therefore, global production figures for colored gemstones have not been published previously by the USGS, although data are available for some individual countries.

Based on government data, company reports, and a review of the colored gemstone mining literature, the overall emerald, ruby, sapphire, and tanzanite production from 1995 to 2004 have been estimated. Amethyst and garnet production figures for selected countries also have been compiled.

Global emerald production increased from about 3600 kg in 1995 to 5900 kg in 2004; output rose in Colombia, Brazil, Madagascar, and Zambia. Colombia’s status as the world’s leading emerald produced was challenged by Brazil and Zambia. Brazil’s emerald production increased sharply because of the development of large-scale mechanized mines.

World ruby production is also estimated to have increased, from about 4400kg in 1995 to 9100kg 2004. This increase was primarily attributable to greater production in Kenya, which tends to mine cabochon grade ruby. Production declines in Myanmar and Tanzania were reversed in 2001 and 2004, respectively. Madagascar’s ruby output increased because of the discovery of the Andilamena and Vatomandry mining areas.

Global sapphire production is estimated to have declined from about 26200 kg in 1995 to 22600 kg in 2004 as production increases in Madagascar and Sri Lanka were more than offset by decreases in Australia and Tanzania. In Australia, large-scale mining operations shut down or reduced output because of the depletion of near surface deposits by artisanal and small scale miners. In Madagascar, the discovery of sapphire at IIakaka and Sakaraha led to substantial increases in production from 1998-2000, but output has declined in 2003-2004. Sri Lanka’s production of geuda increased in 2003-2004.

Tanzanite produced declined from about 6500 kg in 2002 to 3100 kg in 2004 because of a lack of new deposits being discovered and higher costs associated with the increasing depths of small-scale mines in Blocks B and D at Merelani; cutbacks in production have not been offset by mechanized mining in Block C.

Gem production has shifted rapidly between countries and within countries in recent years. With the depletion of near-surface alluvial deposits, colored gemstone mining is likely to shift from small-scale to large-scale operations.

The Gulf Perspective

Amit Dhamani is a well-known and influential figure in the gem and jewerly circle in the Middle East. He is an insider and knows the pulse of the business. His opinions are invaluable.

Amit Dhamani (MD, Dhamani Jewels, Dubai, UAE) writes:

The Gulf region, comprised of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman, is one of the fastest rising commercial centers on the global map. The state of Dubai, in the UAE, has embarked on an aggressive growth strategy by liberalizing its economy and reaching out to global partners in many key industries, making it the gateway to the Gulf. With gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 9.4% last year, the second highest in the world, Dubai has become a major upscale tourist and business destination for travelers from Europe, Russia, India, and neighboring Asian countries.

More than 120 shipping lines and 105 airlines connect Dubai to 145 + global destinations. Supported by a superior transportation, telecommunications, and finance infrastructure, Dubai is well equipped to manage some of the world’s most sophisticated and ambitious projects to date.

Liberal tax and property ownership laws have attracted wealthy expatriates, creating a business boom. Out of a population of 1.2 million, 60% are from 140 different nations. Fueled by oil and the booming real estate and retail sectors, the region has one of the world’s highest per capita incomes; coupled with the growth of tourism and the population’s affinity for gems and precious metals, its jewelry market has grown at a faster rate than anywhere else in the world. Jewelry sales reached $15 billion in the Gulf countries last year, of which diamond jewelry sales accounted for $3.5 billion; these figures are growing by leaps and bounds.

In Dubai alone, estimated retail jewelry sales were $3billion last year, with half of this for diamond jewelry. The average per capita jewelry sale was $2500, the world’s highest by far. With approximately 850 retail jewelry outlets in Dubai at present, and tourists accounting for 54% of jewelry purchases, these figures are bound to continue rising in the future; it is estimated that 40 million tourists will be visiting this region by 2015, up from 9 million presently.

Consumers in the Gulf region tends to prefer diamonds in all shapes at 0.50 ct and above, usually D-I color and VVS-SI clarity ranges, with certificates from international labs. Diamond watches are quite popular, especially international brands. As with many other major markets, the favored colored stones are emeralds, rubies and sapphires. Among the many retailers already operating in the Gulf countries are world renowned houses such as Tiffany, Cartier, Bulgari, De Beers, Chopard, Dhamani, and Damas.

With the establishment of the DMCC (Dubai Multi Commodities Center), the Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange, the Dubai Diamond Exchange, the Dubai Gem Certification, and the Dubai Cut Diamond, Dubai has become a major global player. DMCC is the arm of the Government of Dubai that is helping create market opportunities for all businesses. To date, 850 international companies have listed with the DMCC. The 64-floor Al-Mas Tower, which is scheduled form completion by the end of 2007, is solely dedicated to diamond traders, local and international. All told, Dubai’s jewelry retail space is expected to triple in the next five years.

Dubai also hosts international jewelry shows and exhibitions year-round, with the ICA congress set to be held there in 2007.These events serve as yet another platform for international jewelry companies to make their way into this market.

With new developments taking place at a rapid pace, Dubai and the Gulf hold enormous growth potential for all international businesses. Dubai welcomes the world’s gem and jewelry industry to be a part of history in the making.

Security Advice

I think the advice is also good for gem miners, dealers in rough colored stones and diamonds, and gemologists who love to travel to exotic places looking for stones in Africa, Asia, South America and the United States.

Don't Look a Leopard in the Eye, and Other Security Advice
(via Wired) Bruce Schneier writes:

If you encounter an aggressive lion, stare him down. But not a leopard; avoid his gaze at all costs. In both cases, back away slowly; don't run. If you stumble on a pack of hyenas, run and climb a tree; hyenas can't climb trees. But don't do that if you're being chased by an elephant; he'll just knock the tree down. Stand still until he forgets about you.

I spent the last few days on safari in a South African game park, and this was just some of the security advice we were all given. What's interesting about this advice is how well-defined it is. The defenses might not be terribly effective -- you still might get eaten, gored or trampled -- but they're your best hope. Doing something else isn't advised, because animals do the same things over and over again. These are security countermeasures against specific tactics.

Lions and leopards learn tactics that work for them, and I was taught tactics to defend myself. Humans are intelligent, and that means we are more adaptable than animals. But we're also, generally speaking, lazy and stupid; and, like a lion or hyena, we will repeat tactics that work. Pickpockets use the same tricks over and over again. So do phishers, and school shooters (.pdf). If improvised explosive devices didn't work often enough, Iraqi insurgents would do something else.

So security against people generally focuses on tactics as well.

A friend of mine recently asked me where she should hide her jewelry in her apartment, so that burglars wouldn't find it. Burglars tend to look in the same places all the time -- dresser tops, night tables, dresser drawers, bathroom counters -- so hiding valuables somewhere else is more likely to be effective, especially against a burglar who is pressed for time. Leave decoy cash and jewelry in an obvious place so a burglar will think he's found your stash and then leave. Again, there's no guarantee of success, but it's your best hope.

The key to these countermeasures is to find the pattern: the common attack tactic that is worth defending against. That takes data. A single instance of an attack that didn't work -- liquid bombs, shoe bombs -- or one instance that did -- 9/11 -- is not a pattern. Implementing defensive tactics against them is the same as my safari guide saying: "We've only ever heard of one tourist encountering a lion. He stared it down and survived. Another tourist tried the same thing with a leopard, and he got eaten. So when you see a lion...." The advice I was given was based on thousands of years of collective wisdom from people encountering African animals again and again.

Compare this with the Transportation Security Administration's approach. With every unique threat, TSA implements a countermeasure with no basis to say that it helps, or that the threat will ever recur.

Furthermore, human attackers can adapt more quickly than lions. A lion won't learn that he should ignore people who stare him down, and eat them anyway. But people will learn. Burglars now know the common "secret" places people hide their valuables -- the toilet, cereal boxes, the refrigerator and freezer, the medicine cabinet, under the bed -- and look there. I told my friend to find a different secret place, and to put decoy valuables in a more obvious place.

This is the arms race of security. Common attack tactics result in common countermeasures. Eventually, those countermeasures will be evaded and new attack tactics developed. These, in turn, require new countermeasures. You can easily see this in the constant arms race that is credit card fraud, ATM fraud or automobile theft.

The result of these tactic-specific security countermeasures is to make the attacker go elsewhere. For the most part, the attacker doesn't particularly care about the target. Lions don't care who or what they eat; to a lion, you're just a conveniently packaged bag of protein. Burglars don't care which house they rob, and terrorists don't care who they kill. If your countermeasure makes the lion attack an impala instead of you, or if your burglar alarm makes the burglar rob the house next door instead of yours, that's a win for you.

Tactics matter less if the attacker is after you personally. If, for example, you have a priceless painting hanging in your living room and the burglar knows it, he's not going to rob the house next door instead -- even if you have a burglar alarm. He's going to figure out how to defeat your system. Or he'll stop you at gunpoint and force you to open the door. Or he'll pose as an air-conditioner repairman. What matters is the target, and a good attacker will consider a variety of tactics to reach his target.

This approach requires a different kind of countermeasure, but it's still well-understood in the security world. For people, it's what alarm companies, insurance companies and bodyguards specialize in. President Bush needs a different level of protection against targeted attacks than Bill Gates does, and I need a different level of protection than either of them. It would be foolish of me to hire bodyguards in case someone was targeting me for robbery or kidnapping. Yes, I would be more secure, but it's not a good security trade-off.

Al-Qaida terrorism is different yet again. The goal is to terrorize. It doesn't care about the target, but it doesn't have any pattern of tactic, either. Given that, the best way to spend our counterterrorism dollar is on intelligence, investigation and emergency response. And to refuse to be terrorized.

These measures are effective because they don't assume any particular tactic, and they don't assume any particular target. We should only apply specific countermeasures when the cost-benefit ratio makes sense (reinforcing airplane cockpit doors) or when a specific tactic is repeatedly observed (lions attacking people who don't stare them down). Otherwise, general countermeasures are far more effective a defense.

Bruce Schneier is the CTO of BT Counterpane and the author of Beyond Fear: Thinking Sensibly About Security in an Uncertain World.

Monday, June 04, 2007

The Horse Whisperer

Memorable quote (s) from the movie:

Tom Booker (Robert Redford): Sometimes what seems like surrender isn't surrender at all. It's about what's going on in our hearts. About seeing clearly the way life is and accepting it and being true to it, whatever the pain, because the pain of not being true to it is far, far greater.

The Jewelry Market In Japan: 2020

Yasukazu Suwa is an insider and an expert. He is a well-known writer on colored stones and well respected in the industry.

Yasukazu Suwa (President, Suwa & Sons, Inc, Tokyo, Japan) writes:

It took about 2700 years to mine and fashion an estimated 0.8 tons of diamonds before the South African discovery in 1867. Currently, about 3.6 tons of polished diamonds are produced each year. Since the beginning of the 20th century, annual diamond mining production has tripled every 30 years. Nevertheless, if all the diamonds polished since the beginning of time were brought together, they would only fill a single double-decker bus.

In addition, only a small percentage of gemstone production is of the finest quality. This percentage get even smaller as production increases. More than ever, we must realize that truly fine gemstones are entrusted to us by nature. After individuals own them for a relatively short time, these gems change hands, either as heirlooms or as estate pieces. As the world market becomes more borderless, fine gemstones and jewelry circulate freely—back and forth between the United States, Europe, Japan, China, and so on. Since new production of fine quality gemstones is limited, recirculation is a major source of high quality material.

Advances in treatments make it possible to convert some previously unusable material into beautiful stones, but these lack the rarity of naturally beautiful gems. Synthetic stones might be attractive, but because theoretically there are no limitations to the quantity that can be produced over time, again they lack the rarity intrinsic to the value of a natural gem.

The current Japanese jewelry market
The emergence of the modern Japanese market began around 1960. Japan’s share of global loose diamond imports rose to 20% by 1985, peaked at 34% in 1991, then declined to 12% by 2005; currently, its share of the world retail market for jewelry is about 10%. Meanwhile, the nation’s retail market shrank from 3 trillion yen to 1.3 trillion between 1991 and 2005.

In 1985, the relative values of Japanese imports of diamonds, colored stones, and finished jewelry were 70%, 15%, and 15%, respectively. By 2005, this distribution had changed to 46%, 6%, and 48%. Diamond imports fell due to a drastic drop in sales of small-carat-size engagement rings. Relative imports of finished jewelry increased as about half the domestic manufacturers went out of business. This increase included super brand goods as well as less expensive jewelry from Thailand, China, and India.

Twenty years ago, most Japanese consumers saw themselves as comfortably middle class. Today, 80% of the population feels that they are in the lower middle class, and few feel that they are rich. The Japanese jewelry business must now deal with two very different market segments.

Looking forward
The future holds a number of scenarios for Japan and the global jewelry industry:

1. Japan will maintain its 10% share of the world’s polished diamond market through 2020, but jewelry imports will continue to grow relative to loose gemstone imports. Meanwhile, the jewelry market will become more polarized. Japan’s high end consumers will prefer rare, high quality untreated gemstones, and they will be asset conscious and more global in their purchases. The faster growing low end market will be dominated by commercial, treated, and even synthetic stones; these shoppers will be more price conscious and purchase locally. Within this polarized market, high end gemstone oriented jewelry will remain the driving force behind all jewelry sales. The low end jewelry market will follow the trends and styles that are established by the more affluent market.

2. Branding and traceability will be more important to consumers worldwide. Where jewelry is made will matter less to consumers, while a manufacturer’s reputation for quality and reliability will mean more. Traceability and positive determination of country of origin will become more important as consumers become more sensitive to issues such as conflict diamonds, child labor in developing countries, and other political and human rights concerns.

3. Recirculation will be more prevalent in the fine jewelry market. Just as the supply of gemstones is now more global, customers for fine jewelry are more mobile than ever. They purchase fine quality gemstone oriented jewelry from all over the world. This trend will continue in the future. The role of gemological laboratories in distinguishing country of origin and methods of treatment will become increasingly important as fine qualities circulate between markets.

How To Extract Gold

(via The National Geographic Magazine)

Some 2½ tons of rock must be processed to produce an ounce of gold and a sliver of silver.

1. Like a mighty nutcracker, steel jaws shatter ore into softball-size fragments. Hand sorters discard pieces lacking gold.

2. After further crushing, the ore mixes with water and enters a revolving cylinder, to be pulverized by tumbling steel balls or bars.

3. Air jets and mechanical arms in agitator tanks mix cyanide into powdered ore and water, called slime. This releases gold from rock.

4. The gold-cyanide solution and slime funnel into vast tanks where the rock particles slowly sink. The clarified solution is fed into filtrations units.

5. Gold-cyanide solution is filtered to strain out any remaining rock particles, and then is deaerated.

6. Zinc dust added to the solution separates the cyanide from the gold, which emerges as an impure powder.

7. The gold is melted with fluxes such as borax. As the metal cools in the bottom of a conical mold, the fluxes combine with impurities and float as slag.

8. Final product: a shining ‘button’ 90 percent gold, the rest silver. Further processing at a central refinery yields the 99.6 percent pure gold.

The State Of The Diamond Market—An Update

- The diamond industry is going through its natural ‘period’. Consumers are more interested in other types of luxury goods and if the trend continues then diamonds won’t be their first choice.

- The so-called diamond banks in Europe, US and elsewhere have started tightening credit facilities for diamantaires, which may directly/indirectly affect the dealers/retailers business one way or the other.

- The Internet is becoming a major challenge/player for new-comers as well as the established ones. High volume, taxes, low margin, and name-recognition are both good/bad news for the business, and the only way to survive in this dog-eat-dog world is to specialize in unique products, improved/innovative customer services, and finding new ways to cut costs to maintain cash flow and profitability.

- Synthetic diamonds are getting more visible, affordable and identifiable.

- It’s believed that De Beer’s market share is roughly forty percent and there will more restructuring in the coming months. The company is also under lot of pressure from the African governments to facilitate/process diamonds locally in order to create more employment for the locals. De Beers may not have that many choices and the real losers will be ‘middle market’ players.

- Even though the Kimberley Process was initiated with good intent, its effective execution may not be up to the mark due to various factors. It is estimated that ten percent of the world’s diamonds are produced in bad conditions for low wages.

- We are going to see more active involvement by human rights groups in various formats.

Sunday, June 03, 2007

Being John Malkovich

Memorable quote (s) from the movie:

Craig Schwartz (John Cusack): There's a tiny door in my office, Maxine. It's a portal and it takes you inside John Malkovich. You see the world through John Malkovich's eyes... and then after about 15 minutes, you're spit out... into a ditch on the side of The New Jersey Turnpike.

Maxine (Catherine Keener): Sounds great! Who the fuck is John Malkovich?

Craig Schwartz (John Cusack): Oh, he's an actor. He's one of the great American actors of the 20th century.

Maxine (Catherine Keener): Oh yeah? What's he been in?

Craig Schwartz (John Cusack): Lots of things. That jewel thief movie, for example. He's very well respected. Anyway, the point is... this is a very odd thing. It's supernatural, for lack of a better word. I mean, it raises all sorts of philosophical-type questions, you know... about the nature of self, about the existence of a soul. You know, am I me? Is Malkovich Malkovich? I had a piece of wood in my hand Maxine. I don't have it any more. Where is it? Did it disappear? How could that be? Is it still in Malkovish's head? I don't know! Do you see what a metaphysical can of worms this portal is? I don't see how I could go on living my life the way I've lived it before.