Gold prices may surge past $4,000 per ounce by 2026 as risks mount around U.S. monetary policy, Federal Reserve independence, and a weaker U.S. dollar. Learn what this means for your investments.
Gold’s safe-haven image took a hit after the U.S. and China paused their trade war for 90 days.
But the story doesn’t end there.
According to Nitesh Shah, Head of Commodities & Macroeconomic Research at WisdomTree Europe, gold still has strong upside. The reason: global uncertainty is unlikely to subside anytime soon.
Key Risks Driving Gold
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Federal Reserve Independence
President Trump has openly criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell. He even called him a “fool” after the Fed refused to cut rates.
Powell’s term ends in May 2026. If markets lose confidence in the Fed’s independence, gold could shine. -
U.S. Dollar Weakness
The U.S. could consider a new version of the 1985 Plaza Accord, sometimes referred to as the “Mar-a-Lago Accord.”
Back then, the dollar fell 48% in just two years. A weaker dollar today could trigger higher inflation—and stronger demand for gold. -
Global Credibility Issues
Even if trade disputes cool down, the U.S. faces credibility challenges as a reliable trade partner. Investors may hedge with gold.
Price Forecasts
Shah outlines three possible scenarios:
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Baseline:
Gold reaches $3,610/oz in Q1 2026. -
Bull Case:
Prices rally to $4,000/oz as demand rises during recession and inflation fears.
Example: It took 14 years for gold to climb from $1,000 to $2,000, but only one year to jump from $2,000 to $3,000. Another $1,000 move isn’t far-fetched. -
“Mar-a-Lago Accord” Case:
A 20%-dollar depreciation could send gold to $5,080/oz or more.
Why? Debt market turbulence and inflation would push investors into gold. -
Bear Case:
Gold slips to $2,700/oz. Even in this case, the downside is limited.
What This Means for You
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Gold remains a strategic asset in times of political and economic uncertainty.
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Upside risks currently outweigh downside risks.
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You can use gold as a hedge against:
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Weak U.S. dollar
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Inflation
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Policy mistakes at the Fed
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Geopolitical conflicts
A Question for You
Do you see gold as insurance in your portfolio—or as a way to profit from future uncertainty?
