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Friday, June 08, 2007

Three Days Of The Condor

Memorable quote (s) from the movie:

Kathy (Faye Dunaway): You... you have a lot of very fine qualities. But...

Joe Turner (Robert Redford): What fine qualities?

Kathy (Faye Dunaway): You have good eyes. Not kind, but they don't lie, and they don't look away much, and they don't miss anything. I could use eyes like that.

Joe Turner (Robert Redford): But you're overdue in Vermont. Is he a tough guy?

Kathy (Faye Dunaway): He's pretty tough.

Joe Turner (Robert Redford): What will he do?

Kathy (Faye Dunaway): Understand, probably.

Joe Turner (Robert Redford): Boy. That is tough.

Wine Pirates

I think the colored stone and diamond industry should learn a lot from the wine industry. Though subjective, they do have grading standard (s) that's understood worldwide + the identification of fake wines via high tech, user-friendly gadgets should be a wake up call for the gem and jewelry industry.

Bottle Tech Aims To Foil Wine Pirates
Michelle Locke (AP) writes:

At Colgin Cellars, a kiss is not just a kiss.

For years, vintner Ann Colgin has sealed bottles of her sought-after wine headed for auction with a bright-red lipsticked kiss on the label, a charming, and undeniably personal, certificate of authenticity.

But with concerns growing about counterfeiters, she and other Napa Valley vintners are turning to high-tech fraud prevention so customers can feel confident they're taking home genuine wine.

Colgin, who hasn't yet had someone attempt to fake her wine and hopes to keep it that way, recently signed a deal with Eastman Kodak Co. on a system that employs invisible markers added to inks and other packaging components.

"Our wine is essentially a luxury good and I do believe that these rare and collectible luxury goods are targets," said Colgin, whose ultra-premium wines can fetch hundreds of dollars a bottle at auction.

With the new system, buyers at auctions and other secondary markets can ask the winery to scan their labels if they have any doubts, although the measures are primarily intended to put off counterfeiters.

It's hard to gauge how wide a problem counterfeits are in the U.S. wine industry, which according to a recent industry commissioned study pumps $162 billion a year into the economy, including grape-growing, tourism and other related impacts.

Wine Spectator magazine has reported that some experts believe as much as 5 percent of wines sold in secondary markets such as auctions may be counterfeit, although others consider that figure too high.

Unlike CD and DVD counterfeiting, wine piracy hasn't become a noticeable drain on the industry yet, so U.S. vintners are acting defensively.

There have been cases of counterfeit wines reported in Europe and China, and this spring there were reports that federal authorities in New York were investigating whether counterfeits were passed off as rare vintages, including some said to be part of Thomas Jefferson's collection. According to a lawsuit believed to have partly prompted the investigation, five bottles of wine — including four said to be owned by Jefferson — sold for $500,000.

Regardless of how many phony pinots are out there, it seems clear that interest in preventing fraud has spiked as new technology has become available, said Daniel Welty, marketing manager for Petaluma-based John Henry Packaging, which prints labels for wineries as well as other clients.

"It's more of a case the tools are becoming more available to combat the problem," he said. Anti-fraud measures being explored include tamper-proof seals, radio-frequency identification chips sunk into corks and using inks that only show up under special lights.

The Kodak technology used by Colgin and three other high-end Napa wineries involves putting proprietary markers, which Kodak will describe only as a "forensically undetectable material" into things such as printing inks, varnishes, paper, etc. that can only be detected by a Kodak handheld reader, also proprietary, which incorporates laser technology.

The idea is to come up with something easy to use and hard to detect, meaning it's that much harder for counterfeiters to figure out and copy, said Steve Powell, general manager and director for Security Solutions, Kodak's Graphic Communications Group.

The John Henry packaging company is using technology developed by Hewlett-Packard Co. to develop multicolored codes or graphics into labels. Colors and character combinations can be constantly changed to thwart copycats, Welty said.

The codes can be microprinted, so they're visible only with magnification, or in type that can be easily read.

"It's really cool. It's really simple, and nobody can know what the next codes are," he said. Fine wine can be expensive straight from the shelf, but when it comes to charity affairs, such as the Napa Valley annual wine auction going on this week, prices can go sky high.

Last year's high bid was $1.05 million for five large-format bottles of Staglin Family Vineyard Meritage blend, along with a trip to France. Like Colgin, the Staglins haven't run across fakes so far, but they decided to take a preemptive step and use the Kodak system on large bottles that are likely to end up being traded, said Garen Staglin.

"We want to be sure that we can give our customers the assurance of the integrity of our brand and label after we spent so much time and effort to try to accomplish what we've done over the years," he said.

In San Francisco, Jerome Zech, CEO of WineBid.com, which had $22.5 million in sales last year, doesn't think wine fraud is prevalent.

But with some high-end wines starting at $500 a bottle for pre-release prices, he's all for the industry's move toward anti-counterfeiting measures. "It'll help them and it'll help us as well."

WineBid's officials authenticate wine by only dealing with people they trust and checking bottles against a vast database, Zech said. If something seems off, "we just don't even question whether or not we would put it on our site. We would just reject the bottle."

So when someone showed up with two bottles of a famous French wine — and the glass was different for each bottle, "We go, Are you joking? Where did you get these things," Zech said. "He had some story, and we just said, "Sorry."

More info @ http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070606/ap_on_bi_ge/genuine_wine

Amethyst Mining In Zambia

Here is an insider's view on amethyst mining in Zambia. Amethyst is found worldwide, but new localities can be always full of surprises.

Bjorn Anckar (European Union Mining Sector Diversification Programme, Lusaka, Zambia) writes:

One of the world’s largest producers of amethyst is Republic of Zambia in south-central Africa. Amethyst mining takes place in several parts of the country, but only three localities have any significance in the gem trade. The most important occurrence is the Mapatizya mining area in the Kalomo District of southern Zambia. Amethyst has been mined here since its discovery in the late 1950s. At present there are about 60 registered mining plots but only about 10 can be considered active producers. Currently, there is one large operator and a few moderate-scale operations. There are also a number of small scale mining operations as well as an abundance of artisanal miners and illegal diggers. About 5000 people have settled in the immediate area and depend on amethyst mining for their livelihood. The local climate is very arid, and agriculture is at the subsistence level or lower. The poverty of the area is striking.

Amethyst mining by the large and moderate scale operators is accomplished in open pits using bulldozers and excavators. Small scale operators dig pits and tunnels using only picks and shovels. Processing is very labor intensive, and includes washing, sorting, cobbing, sawing and final sizing/grading of large amounts of mineral material.

Production in Zambia over the last decade averaged about 1000 tonnes of amethyst annually. The vast majority of this production is low grade and mostly exported to China for carving and bead making. A small portion of the total production constitutes facet grade with a vivid purple Siberian hue. Faceted amethyst from Zambia ranges from melee to >50 carats. Heat treatment is not performed, as the material turns an unattractive grayish green. Frequent bush fires and intense sunlight in the area have turned all surface exposed amethyst veins to this color.

Amethyst mines are also located in central Zambia, in Chief Kaindu’s area north-northwest of Mumbwa. The area is most noted for its production of specimens of attractive amethyst druses; some are quite large and weigh several tones. The crystals are generally large, ranging from 2 to 13cm. One locality, the Lombwa mine, produces material that shows patchy portions of distinct citrine and amethyst, but the two colors tend to blend and the material is difficult to cut into attractive pieces of ametrine.

A vast area with several amethyst mines is located along the border of Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, between Solwezi and Mwinilunga in northwestern Zambia. The material is often very clear but tends to be pale and is mainly exported to China for carving and bead making. Amethyst from this area responds well to heating, and a large portion of the production is treated to citrine. The Chafukuma mine is considered the producer of the best quality amethyst in this area.

More On The Black Swan Concept

(via Emergic) The ideas behind Mediocristan and Extremistan in Nassim Taleb’s “The BlackSwan” are worth exploring in more depth. Chetan Parikh has reproduced a table from the book which explains the differences between Mediocristan and Extremistan.

The Portfolio wrote:
N.N.T., who lives in New York and has taught at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst, previously traded derivatives on Wall Street. The academics who drive him to tears are the ones who have explained—or misexplained—his old profession. They think that markets are from Mediocristan when in fact they inhabit Extremistan.

Say what? Mediocristan is the terrain of the ordinary, the part of the world that conforms to the bell curve. It answers to statistics and knowable probabilities. Height resides in Mediocristan. You may find one 7-footer on your block, almost certainly not two. Experience (and biology) enable us to frame the odds. Weight is also from Mediocristan. Pick any 1,000 people and their average weight will be close to that of the general population (even if you include the world’s fattest person). Personal wealth, however, is from Extremistan. For instance, the average wealth of 1,000 people will be very different if one of those people is Bill Gates.

This distinction is potent. In Extremistan, past events are a faulty guide to projecting the future. Gates may be the world’s richest person, but it isn’t unthinkable that someday, someone (at Google, perhaps?) will be twice as rich. Wars also reside in Extremistan. Prior to World War II, the planet had never experienced a conflict as terrible. Then we did. Suppose you frequent a pond. Day after day you see swans—always white. Naturally (but incorrectly) you presume that all swans are white. World War II was a black swan—horrific and unpredictable.

The Financial Times added:
Taleb claims that there are too many extreme events in securities markets for such markets to be located in Mediocristan. The black swan of October 1987, when the Dow Jones index fell by about 20 per cent, was the first trigger for his personal reassessment. The event was simply outside the realms of possibility in classical statistics. Taleb would first substitute power laws and the mathematics of extreme statistics for the reassurance of normal distributions. But this still gives more credence to economists and financial analysts than he allows. Probabilities can be defined and predictions made only if the events that are the subject of the probabilities and predictions can be described. Donald Rumsfeld distinguished known unknowns and unknown unknowns. Statistics, old and new, deal with known unknowns. Taleb’s world is determined by unknown unknowns - black swans.

No one, he says, could have predicted the invention of the wheel or measured the probability that the wheel would be invented, because if you could do either of these things you would already have invented the wheel. The invention of the wheel was a black swan.

Arlene Goldbard went further:
Taleb argues convincingly that we treat far too much of our reality as if it were Mediocristan when in fact much of it often behaves like Extremistan, where there are occasional “black swans” (his name for the unexpected event and the title of his most recent book) among the white. So, for example, out of the many thousands of books, films and recordings released each year, a small number will account for the largest part of sales, and it is not possible to predict with certainty which of the many works released will find black swan-style success (or failure). Indeed, in any endeavor susceptible to notable, unpredictable exceptions, no amount of examining the past will enable us to foretell the future.What’s going on here? Taleb discusses many factors contributing to our tendency to see our world as Mediocristan. There is the fact that our brains evolved long ago to deal with a world with many fewer variables, much less organized information, and a vastly smaller number of theories to explain them. The more complex any given situation, the larger number of examples you need to understand what is happening there. For instance, sampling the sales of a few dozen published books each year won’t tell you much about the prospects of the thousands of others not sampled. It’s just as likely as not that your sample would include one or more black swans—unexpectedly huge winners or losers—so anything you might conclude based on it would not be generalizable to the rest.

Thursday, June 07, 2007

The Shipping News

Memorable quote (s) from the movie:

Billy (Gordon Pinsent): It's finding the center of your story, the beating heart of it, that's what makes a reporter. You have to start by making up some headlines. You know: short, punchy, dramatic headlines. Now, have a look, what do you see? Tell me the headline.

Quoyle (Kevin Spacey): Horizon Fills With Dark Clouds?

Billy (Gordon Pinsent): Imminent Storm Threatens Village.

Quoyle (Kevin Spacey): But what if no storm comes?

Billy (Gordon Pinsent): Village Spared From Deadly Storm.

The 4-Hour Workweek

(via Emergic) The book by Timothy Ferriss promises:

- How to outsource your life and do whatever you want for a year, only to return to a bank account 50% larger than before you left.

- How blue-chip escape artists travel the world without quitting their jobs.

- How to eliminate 50% of your work in 48 hours using the principles of little-known European economists.

- How to train your boss to value performance over presence, or kill your job (or company) if it's beyond repair.

- How to trade a long-haul career for short work bursts and frequent “mini-retirements”.

- What automated cash-flow "muses" are and how to create one in 2-4 weeks.

- How to cultivate selective ignorance—and create time—with a low-information diet.

- Management secrets of Remote Control CEOs.

- The crucial difference between absolute and relative income.

- How to get free housing worldwide and airfare at 50-80% off.

- How to fill the void and creating meaning after removing work and the office.

The Italian And European Goldsmith Industry: Current Status And Possible Future Scenarios

Here is an insider view on the state of the European jewelry landscape. Even though European craftsmanship and branding may have raised the profile of their products during the course, they are faced with new realities. India and China may be the real threats in the long run. The numbers are on their side, but still European products have a perceived value in the emerging markets due to branding and that special look and feel. It's all in the state of mind of most consumers. The only way to stay on top will be to innovate and find your own niche in the already crowded jewelry market (s) of the world.

Leopoldo Poli (Co-owner, La Nouvelle Bague, Florence, Italy) writes:

Given the social, political, and cultural events of the last decade, the question before us is whether there will be genuine opportunities for growth and development for the Italian and European goldsmith industries. Recent events have generated crises and related difficulties, but in markets the word crisis is always synonymous with opportunity, and opportunities are truly what make the difference in the success of a company. The challenge for the next decade or two will be to transform some players in the goldsmith world from passive into active participants who turn change into opportunities.

Crisis
The economic crisis throughout Europe has put a growing number of jewelry companies at risk. Problems related to unemployment and the erosion of salaries has made the purchasing power of the middle class precarious. Only companies that know how to invest in the emotions of their clientele—persuading them to spend less in other luxury areas—have maintained a solid market share. Italy, in particular, has been at a disadvantage due to the introduction of the euro.

The second crisis is foreign competition. China, India, and Turkey, all new players on international markets, have started exporting products of increasingly high quality, benefiting from lower costs due to their highly competitive local wages.

Third, there is a crisis in the motivation to acquire gold jewelry. Other consumer market segments have taken over the role of jewelry, which has witnessed a decline in the myth of ostentation together with the emergence of functionality—new electronic gadgets, exotic travel and health spas.

Today’s European players
Today, there are four main players in Europe’s gem and jewelry industry, which have mixed prospects for the future:

1. Historic jewelry brands
They have their own history, combined with a strong tradition in both production and marketing. These firms can be expected to maintain a sizable market share, though it has been diminished by producers from lower-wage nations. The ones who will remain strong are those who organize themselves in a market-oriented way, seizing new opportunities, anticipating trends, and communicating the product emotionally via brand identity.

2. Emerging steel and silver brands
These young companies entered the market in response to the need for a new type of jewel, precious in design if not necessarily in the materials used. They have built on emotion and symbolism of their product, aiming it at the youth market. The winners will be those who know best how to interpret the trend for the hot metals, by discovering materials and designs that fit in with current styles.

3. Fashion companies
These are fashion brands that have entered the jewelry market in order to deliver a total look. They put forward industrial products that make an effort to present a distinctive design and are sophisticated technologically, flaunting their Italian workmanship.

4. Small artisanal companies
These are small, traditional manufacturing companies that develop their brands and are characterized by high quality craftsmanship. Some are disappearing because others have eroded their market share, and some are winners thanks to the intrinsic strength of the artisanal product. Those companies that put forward innovative designs, distinct from mass-produced items, will succeed. Opportunities for these companies are both in the specialist sector serving the big brands, and in the promotion of their own brands with high quality product.

Trends and the Trendsetter
The strength of a brand is measured in emotional terms; the key is to conduct a dialogue in a differentiated way with one’s clientele. Choosing the right communication means significantly enhancing the value of a product so that a larger slice of the population will want to trade up.

In every area of business, the most enthusiastic client is the trendsetter. Successful producers cater to tastemakers who influence and infect other groups of consumers. By knowing the trendsetters and working with them, we can achieve success without excessive investments in advertisement, because the product is truly exceptional.

Industrial production that lacks added value will be penalized. Therefore, we should continue to develop products with strong artisanal characteristics that value their origins and traditions. Italy has an enviable tradition of fashion and design. In this respect, our competitors are at a disadvantage because they are not creators of trends.

Small Jewellers Join Hands To Create Brands

I think it's a bold move by small jewelers in India. Other jewelry markets in the world may want to follow up with the concept. The effectiveness may depend on the delivery mechanism. How are they going to reach the middle + bottom of the pyramid? Only time will tell.

Tejal A Deshpande writes:

This is one trend that could redefine modern retail in India. As the large jewellery brands snatch market share away from smaller players, the small jewellers (the mom-and-pop equivalent of grocery retail outlets) are coming together to form an umbrella brand and share a common marketing strategy.

Industry experts indicated that this generic effort will enhance product availability through common sourcing and help small retailers climb up the value chain. "Jewellery retailing has to be perceived as a focused marketing activity as the concept of loyal customers is a myth. With the entry of new players and competition from other sectors, there is a need to retain existing customers and attract new ones," said Dharmesh Sodah, director, World Gold Council.

Indian consumers generally make jewellery purchases from family jewellers. However, with the entry of branded players in the market, the consumers, especially the younger lot, are graduating to buying branded jewellery. This trend is affecting the neighbourhood jeweller who is not a franchisee for the big brands such as Tanishq, Gili and others.

According to industry experts, individual entrepreneurs are uniting to offer a uniform retail experience. For instance, four to five jewellers from different parts of Mumbai will form an umbrella brand and adopt common marketing and advertising strategy.

Ashok Minawala, president, Gems and Jewellery Federation said, "The emergence of organised retail will make jewellery industry more professional and prepared to face challenges. Companies with better systems and management will have upper edge on dictating trends in retailing." He mentioned that entry of corporate firms into retail would bring in new buyers, thus promoting the growth of jewellery manufacturers and wholesalers.

Another significant trend in jewellery retailing is penetration in the rural areas. Tanishq has started focusing on the lower end of the market through its brand, Gold Plus. This targets customers who buy gold as an investment product rather than for immediate use. The industry is expecting increased activity in the rural sector, with jewellers opening shops in the smaller markets. "While branded jewellery is becoming popular in cities, the rural population buys jewellery for sentimental and religious values such as weddings and investments. Local jewellers have started opening shops at the district and taluka levels for catering to the newer markets," said Fatehchand Ranka of Pune-based Ranka Jewellers.

The Rs 70,000 crore Indian gems and jewellery industry is also witnessing a tie-up of brands with large format retailers. Goldiam International the manufacturer of Ola brand of silver jewellery, has tied up with Future Group to develop jewellery for Gold Bazaar.

More info @ http://www.rediff.com/money/2007/jun/06brand.htm