Memorable quote (s) from the movie:
Kathy (Faye Dunaway): You... you have a lot of very fine qualities. But...
Joe Turner (Robert Redford): What fine qualities?
Kathy (Faye Dunaway): You have good eyes. Not kind, but they don't lie, and they don't look away much, and they don't miss anything. I could use eyes like that.
Joe Turner (Robert Redford): But you're overdue in Vermont. Is he a tough guy?
Kathy (Faye Dunaway): He's pretty tough.
Joe Turner (Robert Redford): What will he do?
Kathy (Faye Dunaway): Understand, probably.
Joe Turner (Robert Redford): Boy. That is tough.
Friday, June 08, 2007
Wine Pirates
I think the colored stone and diamond industry should learn a lot from the wine industry. Though subjective, they do have grading standard (s) that's understood worldwide + the identification of fake wines via high tech, user-friendly gadgets should be a wake up call for the gem and jewelry industry.
Bottle Tech Aims To Foil Wine Pirates
Michelle Locke (AP) writes:
At Colgin Cellars, a kiss is not just a kiss.
For years, vintner Ann Colgin has sealed bottles of her sought-after wine headed for auction with a bright-red lipsticked kiss on the label, a charming, and undeniably personal, certificate of authenticity.
But with concerns growing about counterfeiters, she and other Napa Valley vintners are turning to high-tech fraud prevention so customers can feel confident they're taking home genuine wine.
Colgin, who hasn't yet had someone attempt to fake her wine and hopes to keep it that way, recently signed a deal with Eastman Kodak Co. on a system that employs invisible markers added to inks and other packaging components.
"Our wine is essentially a luxury good and I do believe that these rare and collectible luxury goods are targets," said Colgin, whose ultra-premium wines can fetch hundreds of dollars a bottle at auction.
With the new system, buyers at auctions and other secondary markets can ask the winery to scan their labels if they have any doubts, although the measures are primarily intended to put off counterfeiters.
It's hard to gauge how wide a problem counterfeits are in the U.S. wine industry, which according to a recent industry commissioned study pumps $162 billion a year into the economy, including grape-growing, tourism and other related impacts.
Wine Spectator magazine has reported that some experts believe as much as 5 percent of wines sold in secondary markets such as auctions may be counterfeit, although others consider that figure too high.
Unlike CD and DVD counterfeiting, wine piracy hasn't become a noticeable drain on the industry yet, so U.S. vintners are acting defensively.
There have been cases of counterfeit wines reported in Europe and China, and this spring there were reports that federal authorities in New York were investigating whether counterfeits were passed off as rare vintages, including some said to be part of Thomas Jefferson's collection. According to a lawsuit believed to have partly prompted the investigation, five bottles of wine — including four said to be owned by Jefferson — sold for $500,000.
Regardless of how many phony pinots are out there, it seems clear that interest in preventing fraud has spiked as new technology has become available, said Daniel Welty, marketing manager for Petaluma-based John Henry Packaging, which prints labels for wineries as well as other clients.
"It's more of a case the tools are becoming more available to combat the problem," he said. Anti-fraud measures being explored include tamper-proof seals, radio-frequency identification chips sunk into corks and using inks that only show up under special lights.
The Kodak technology used by Colgin and three other high-end Napa wineries involves putting proprietary markers, which Kodak will describe only as a "forensically undetectable material" into things such as printing inks, varnishes, paper, etc. that can only be detected by a Kodak handheld reader, also proprietary, which incorporates laser technology.
The idea is to come up with something easy to use and hard to detect, meaning it's that much harder for counterfeiters to figure out and copy, said Steve Powell, general manager and director for Security Solutions, Kodak's Graphic Communications Group.
The John Henry packaging company is using technology developed by Hewlett-Packard Co. to develop multicolored codes or graphics into labels. Colors and character combinations can be constantly changed to thwart copycats, Welty said.
The codes can be microprinted, so they're visible only with magnification, or in type that can be easily read.
"It's really cool. It's really simple, and nobody can know what the next codes are," he said. Fine wine can be expensive straight from the shelf, but when it comes to charity affairs, such as the Napa Valley annual wine auction going on this week, prices can go sky high.
Last year's high bid was $1.05 million for five large-format bottles of Staglin Family Vineyard Meritage blend, along with a trip to France. Like Colgin, the Staglins haven't run across fakes so far, but they decided to take a preemptive step and use the Kodak system on large bottles that are likely to end up being traded, said Garen Staglin.
"We want to be sure that we can give our customers the assurance of the integrity of our brand and label after we spent so much time and effort to try to accomplish what we've done over the years," he said.
In San Francisco, Jerome Zech, CEO of WineBid.com, which had $22.5 million in sales last year, doesn't think wine fraud is prevalent.
But with some high-end wines starting at $500 a bottle for pre-release prices, he's all for the industry's move toward anti-counterfeiting measures. "It'll help them and it'll help us as well."
WineBid's officials authenticate wine by only dealing with people they trust and checking bottles against a vast database, Zech said. If something seems off, "we just don't even question whether or not we would put it on our site. We would just reject the bottle."
So when someone showed up with two bottles of a famous French wine — and the glass was different for each bottle, "We go, Are you joking? Where did you get these things," Zech said. "He had some story, and we just said, "Sorry."
More info @ http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070606/ap_on_bi_ge/genuine_wine
Bottle Tech Aims To Foil Wine Pirates
Michelle Locke (AP) writes:
At Colgin Cellars, a kiss is not just a kiss.
For years, vintner Ann Colgin has sealed bottles of her sought-after wine headed for auction with a bright-red lipsticked kiss on the label, a charming, and undeniably personal, certificate of authenticity.
But with concerns growing about counterfeiters, she and other Napa Valley vintners are turning to high-tech fraud prevention so customers can feel confident they're taking home genuine wine.
Colgin, who hasn't yet had someone attempt to fake her wine and hopes to keep it that way, recently signed a deal with Eastman Kodak Co. on a system that employs invisible markers added to inks and other packaging components.
"Our wine is essentially a luxury good and I do believe that these rare and collectible luxury goods are targets," said Colgin, whose ultra-premium wines can fetch hundreds of dollars a bottle at auction.
With the new system, buyers at auctions and other secondary markets can ask the winery to scan their labels if they have any doubts, although the measures are primarily intended to put off counterfeiters.
It's hard to gauge how wide a problem counterfeits are in the U.S. wine industry, which according to a recent industry commissioned study pumps $162 billion a year into the economy, including grape-growing, tourism and other related impacts.
Wine Spectator magazine has reported that some experts believe as much as 5 percent of wines sold in secondary markets such as auctions may be counterfeit, although others consider that figure too high.
Unlike CD and DVD counterfeiting, wine piracy hasn't become a noticeable drain on the industry yet, so U.S. vintners are acting defensively.
There have been cases of counterfeit wines reported in Europe and China, and this spring there were reports that federal authorities in New York were investigating whether counterfeits were passed off as rare vintages, including some said to be part of Thomas Jefferson's collection. According to a lawsuit believed to have partly prompted the investigation, five bottles of wine — including four said to be owned by Jefferson — sold for $500,000.
Regardless of how many phony pinots are out there, it seems clear that interest in preventing fraud has spiked as new technology has become available, said Daniel Welty, marketing manager for Petaluma-based John Henry Packaging, which prints labels for wineries as well as other clients.
"It's more of a case the tools are becoming more available to combat the problem," he said. Anti-fraud measures being explored include tamper-proof seals, radio-frequency identification chips sunk into corks and using inks that only show up under special lights.
The Kodak technology used by Colgin and three other high-end Napa wineries involves putting proprietary markers, which Kodak will describe only as a "forensically undetectable material" into things such as printing inks, varnishes, paper, etc. that can only be detected by a Kodak handheld reader, also proprietary, which incorporates laser technology.
The idea is to come up with something easy to use and hard to detect, meaning it's that much harder for counterfeiters to figure out and copy, said Steve Powell, general manager and director for Security Solutions, Kodak's Graphic Communications Group.
The John Henry packaging company is using technology developed by Hewlett-Packard Co. to develop multicolored codes or graphics into labels. Colors and character combinations can be constantly changed to thwart copycats, Welty said.
The codes can be microprinted, so they're visible only with magnification, or in type that can be easily read.
"It's really cool. It's really simple, and nobody can know what the next codes are," he said. Fine wine can be expensive straight from the shelf, but when it comes to charity affairs, such as the Napa Valley annual wine auction going on this week, prices can go sky high.
Last year's high bid was $1.05 million for five large-format bottles of Staglin Family Vineyard Meritage blend, along with a trip to France. Like Colgin, the Staglins haven't run across fakes so far, but they decided to take a preemptive step and use the Kodak system on large bottles that are likely to end up being traded, said Garen Staglin.
"We want to be sure that we can give our customers the assurance of the integrity of our brand and label after we spent so much time and effort to try to accomplish what we've done over the years," he said.
In San Francisco, Jerome Zech, CEO of WineBid.com, which had $22.5 million in sales last year, doesn't think wine fraud is prevalent.
But with some high-end wines starting at $500 a bottle for pre-release prices, he's all for the industry's move toward anti-counterfeiting measures. "It'll help them and it'll help us as well."
WineBid's officials authenticate wine by only dealing with people they trust and checking bottles against a vast database, Zech said. If something seems off, "we just don't even question whether or not we would put it on our site. We would just reject the bottle."
So when someone showed up with two bottles of a famous French wine — and the glass was different for each bottle, "We go, Are you joking? Where did you get these things," Zech said. "He had some story, and we just said, "Sorry."
More info @ http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070606/ap_on_bi_ge/genuine_wine
Amethyst Mining In Zambia
Here is an insider's view on amethyst mining in Zambia. Amethyst is found worldwide, but new localities can be always full of surprises.
Bjorn Anckar (European Union Mining Sector Diversification Programme, Lusaka, Zambia) writes:
One of the world’s largest producers of amethyst is Republic of Zambia in south-central Africa. Amethyst mining takes place in several parts of the country, but only three localities have any significance in the gem trade. The most important occurrence is the Mapatizya mining area in the Kalomo District of southern Zambia. Amethyst has been mined here since its discovery in the late 1950s. At present there are about 60 registered mining plots but only about 10 can be considered active producers. Currently, there is one large operator and a few moderate-scale operations. There are also a number of small scale mining operations as well as an abundance of artisanal miners and illegal diggers. About 5000 people have settled in the immediate area and depend on amethyst mining for their livelihood. The local climate is very arid, and agriculture is at the subsistence level or lower. The poverty of the area is striking.
Amethyst mining by the large and moderate scale operators is accomplished in open pits using bulldozers and excavators. Small scale operators dig pits and tunnels using only picks and shovels. Processing is very labor intensive, and includes washing, sorting, cobbing, sawing and final sizing/grading of large amounts of mineral material.
Production in Zambia over the last decade averaged about 1000 tonnes of amethyst annually. The vast majority of this production is low grade and mostly exported to China for carving and bead making. A small portion of the total production constitutes facet grade with a vivid purple Siberian hue. Faceted amethyst from Zambia ranges from melee to >50 carats. Heat treatment is not performed, as the material turns an unattractive grayish green. Frequent bush fires and intense sunlight in the area have turned all surface exposed amethyst veins to this color.
Amethyst mines are also located in central Zambia, in Chief Kaindu’s area north-northwest of Mumbwa. The area is most noted for its production of specimens of attractive amethyst druses; some are quite large and weigh several tones. The crystals are generally large, ranging from 2 to 13cm. One locality, the Lombwa mine, produces material that shows patchy portions of distinct citrine and amethyst, but the two colors tend to blend and the material is difficult to cut into attractive pieces of ametrine.
A vast area with several amethyst mines is located along the border of Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, between Solwezi and Mwinilunga in northwestern Zambia. The material is often very clear but tends to be pale and is mainly exported to China for carving and bead making. Amethyst from this area responds well to heating, and a large portion of the production is treated to citrine. The Chafukuma mine is considered the producer of the best quality amethyst in this area.
Bjorn Anckar (European Union Mining Sector Diversification Programme, Lusaka, Zambia) writes:
One of the world’s largest producers of amethyst is Republic of Zambia in south-central Africa. Amethyst mining takes place in several parts of the country, but only three localities have any significance in the gem trade. The most important occurrence is the Mapatizya mining area in the Kalomo District of southern Zambia. Amethyst has been mined here since its discovery in the late 1950s. At present there are about 60 registered mining plots but only about 10 can be considered active producers. Currently, there is one large operator and a few moderate-scale operations. There are also a number of small scale mining operations as well as an abundance of artisanal miners and illegal diggers. About 5000 people have settled in the immediate area and depend on amethyst mining for their livelihood. The local climate is very arid, and agriculture is at the subsistence level or lower. The poverty of the area is striking.
Amethyst mining by the large and moderate scale operators is accomplished in open pits using bulldozers and excavators. Small scale operators dig pits and tunnels using only picks and shovels. Processing is very labor intensive, and includes washing, sorting, cobbing, sawing and final sizing/grading of large amounts of mineral material.
Production in Zambia over the last decade averaged about 1000 tonnes of amethyst annually. The vast majority of this production is low grade and mostly exported to China for carving and bead making. A small portion of the total production constitutes facet grade with a vivid purple Siberian hue. Faceted amethyst from Zambia ranges from melee to >50 carats. Heat treatment is not performed, as the material turns an unattractive grayish green. Frequent bush fires and intense sunlight in the area have turned all surface exposed amethyst veins to this color.
Amethyst mines are also located in central Zambia, in Chief Kaindu’s area north-northwest of Mumbwa. The area is most noted for its production of specimens of attractive amethyst druses; some are quite large and weigh several tones. The crystals are generally large, ranging from 2 to 13cm. One locality, the Lombwa mine, produces material that shows patchy portions of distinct citrine and amethyst, but the two colors tend to blend and the material is difficult to cut into attractive pieces of ametrine.
A vast area with several amethyst mines is located along the border of Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, between Solwezi and Mwinilunga in northwestern Zambia. The material is often very clear but tends to be pale and is mainly exported to China for carving and bead making. Amethyst from this area responds well to heating, and a large portion of the production is treated to citrine. The Chafukuma mine is considered the producer of the best quality amethyst in this area.
More On The Black Swan Concept
(via Emergic) The ideas behind Mediocristan and Extremistan in Nassim Taleb’s “The BlackSwan” are worth exploring in more depth. Chetan Parikh has reproduced a table from the book which explains the differences between Mediocristan and Extremistan.
The Portfolio wrote:
N.N.T., who lives in New York and has taught at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst, previously traded derivatives on Wall Street. The academics who drive him to tears are the ones who have explained—or misexplained—his old profession. They think that markets are from Mediocristan when in fact they inhabit Extremistan.
Say what? Mediocristan is the terrain of the ordinary, the part of the world that conforms to the bell curve. It answers to statistics and knowable probabilities. Height resides in Mediocristan. You may find one 7-footer on your block, almost certainly not two. Experience (and biology) enable us to frame the odds. Weight is also from Mediocristan. Pick any 1,000 people and their average weight will be close to that of the general population (even if you include the world’s fattest person). Personal wealth, however, is from Extremistan. For instance, the average wealth of 1,000 people will be very different if one of those people is Bill Gates.
This distinction is potent. In Extremistan, past events are a faulty guide to projecting the future. Gates may be the world’s richest person, but it isn’t unthinkable that someday, someone (at Google, perhaps?) will be twice as rich. Wars also reside in Extremistan. Prior to World War II, the planet had never experienced a conflict as terrible. Then we did. Suppose you frequent a pond. Day after day you see swans—always white. Naturally (but incorrectly) you presume that all swans are white. World War II was a black swan—horrific and unpredictable.
The Financial Times added:
Taleb claims that there are too many extreme events in securities markets for such markets to be located in Mediocristan. The black swan of October 1987, when the Dow Jones index fell by about 20 per cent, was the first trigger for his personal reassessment. The event was simply outside the realms of possibility in classical statistics. Taleb would first substitute power laws and the mathematics of extreme statistics for the reassurance of normal distributions. But this still gives more credence to economists and financial analysts than he allows. Probabilities can be defined and predictions made only if the events that are the subject of the probabilities and predictions can be described. Donald Rumsfeld distinguished known unknowns and unknown unknowns. Statistics, old and new, deal with known unknowns. Taleb’s world is determined by unknown unknowns - black swans.
No one, he says, could have predicted the invention of the wheel or measured the probability that the wheel would be invented, because if you could do either of these things you would already have invented the wheel. The invention of the wheel was a black swan.
Arlene Goldbard went further:
Taleb argues convincingly that we treat far too much of our reality as if it were Mediocristan when in fact much of it often behaves like Extremistan, where there are occasional “black swans” (his name for the unexpected event and the title of his most recent book) among the white. So, for example, out of the many thousands of books, films and recordings released each year, a small number will account for the largest part of sales, and it is not possible to predict with certainty which of the many works released will find black swan-style success (or failure). Indeed, in any endeavor susceptible to notable, unpredictable exceptions, no amount of examining the past will enable us to foretell the future.What’s going on here? Taleb discusses many factors contributing to our tendency to see our world as Mediocristan. There is the fact that our brains evolved long ago to deal with a world with many fewer variables, much less organized information, and a vastly smaller number of theories to explain them. The more complex any given situation, the larger number of examples you need to understand what is happening there. For instance, sampling the sales of a few dozen published books each year won’t tell you much about the prospects of the thousands of others not sampled. It’s just as likely as not that your sample would include one or more black swans—unexpectedly huge winners or losers—so anything you might conclude based on it would not be generalizable to the rest.
The Portfolio wrote:
N.N.T., who lives in New York and has taught at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst, previously traded derivatives on Wall Street. The academics who drive him to tears are the ones who have explained—or misexplained—his old profession. They think that markets are from Mediocristan when in fact they inhabit Extremistan.
Say what? Mediocristan is the terrain of the ordinary, the part of the world that conforms to the bell curve. It answers to statistics and knowable probabilities. Height resides in Mediocristan. You may find one 7-footer on your block, almost certainly not two. Experience (and biology) enable us to frame the odds. Weight is also from Mediocristan. Pick any 1,000 people and their average weight will be close to that of the general population (even if you include the world’s fattest person). Personal wealth, however, is from Extremistan. For instance, the average wealth of 1,000 people will be very different if one of those people is Bill Gates.
This distinction is potent. In Extremistan, past events are a faulty guide to projecting the future. Gates may be the world’s richest person, but it isn’t unthinkable that someday, someone (at Google, perhaps?) will be twice as rich. Wars also reside in Extremistan. Prior to World War II, the planet had never experienced a conflict as terrible. Then we did. Suppose you frequent a pond. Day after day you see swans—always white. Naturally (but incorrectly) you presume that all swans are white. World War II was a black swan—horrific and unpredictable.
The Financial Times added:
Taleb claims that there are too many extreme events in securities markets for such markets to be located in Mediocristan. The black swan of October 1987, when the Dow Jones index fell by about 20 per cent, was the first trigger for his personal reassessment. The event was simply outside the realms of possibility in classical statistics. Taleb would first substitute power laws and the mathematics of extreme statistics for the reassurance of normal distributions. But this still gives more credence to economists and financial analysts than he allows. Probabilities can be defined and predictions made only if the events that are the subject of the probabilities and predictions can be described. Donald Rumsfeld distinguished known unknowns and unknown unknowns. Statistics, old and new, deal with known unknowns. Taleb’s world is determined by unknown unknowns - black swans.
No one, he says, could have predicted the invention of the wheel or measured the probability that the wheel would be invented, because if you could do either of these things you would already have invented the wheel. The invention of the wheel was a black swan.
Arlene Goldbard went further:
Taleb argues convincingly that we treat far too much of our reality as if it were Mediocristan when in fact much of it often behaves like Extremistan, where there are occasional “black swans” (his name for the unexpected event and the title of his most recent book) among the white. So, for example, out of the many thousands of books, films and recordings released each year, a small number will account for the largest part of sales, and it is not possible to predict with certainty which of the many works released will find black swan-style success (or failure). Indeed, in any endeavor susceptible to notable, unpredictable exceptions, no amount of examining the past will enable us to foretell the future.What’s going on here? Taleb discusses many factors contributing to our tendency to see our world as Mediocristan. There is the fact that our brains evolved long ago to deal with a world with many fewer variables, much less organized information, and a vastly smaller number of theories to explain them. The more complex any given situation, the larger number of examples you need to understand what is happening there. For instance, sampling the sales of a few dozen published books each year won’t tell you much about the prospects of the thousands of others not sampled. It’s just as likely as not that your sample would include one or more black swans—unexpectedly huge winners or losers—so anything you might conclude based on it would not be generalizable to the rest.
Thursday, June 07, 2007
The Shipping News
Memorable quote (s) from the movie:
Billy (Gordon Pinsent): It's finding the center of your story, the beating heart of it, that's what makes a reporter. You have to start by making up some headlines. You know: short, punchy, dramatic headlines. Now, have a look, what do you see? Tell me the headline.
Quoyle (Kevin Spacey): Horizon Fills With Dark Clouds?
Billy (Gordon Pinsent): Imminent Storm Threatens Village.
Quoyle (Kevin Spacey): But what if no storm comes?
Billy (Gordon Pinsent): Village Spared From Deadly Storm.
Billy (Gordon Pinsent): It's finding the center of your story, the beating heart of it, that's what makes a reporter. You have to start by making up some headlines. You know: short, punchy, dramatic headlines. Now, have a look, what do you see? Tell me the headline.
Quoyle (Kevin Spacey): Horizon Fills With Dark Clouds?
Billy (Gordon Pinsent): Imminent Storm Threatens Village.
Quoyle (Kevin Spacey): But what if no storm comes?
Billy (Gordon Pinsent): Village Spared From Deadly Storm.
The 4-Hour Workweek
(via Emergic) The book by Timothy Ferriss promises:
- How to outsource your life and do whatever you want for a year, only to return to a bank account 50% larger than before you left.
- How blue-chip escape artists travel the world without quitting their jobs.
- How to eliminate 50% of your work in 48 hours using the principles of little-known European economists.
- How to train your boss to value performance over presence, or kill your job (or company) if it's beyond repair.
- How to trade a long-haul career for short work bursts and frequent “mini-retirements”.
- What automated cash-flow "muses" are and how to create one in 2-4 weeks.
- How to cultivate selective ignorance—and create time—with a low-information diet.
- Management secrets of Remote Control CEOs.
- The crucial difference between absolute and relative income.
- How to get free housing worldwide and airfare at 50-80% off.
- How to fill the void and creating meaning after removing work and the office.
- How to outsource your life and do whatever you want for a year, only to return to a bank account 50% larger than before you left.
- How blue-chip escape artists travel the world without quitting their jobs.
- How to eliminate 50% of your work in 48 hours using the principles of little-known European economists.
- How to train your boss to value performance over presence, or kill your job (or company) if it's beyond repair.
- How to trade a long-haul career for short work bursts and frequent “mini-retirements”.
- What automated cash-flow "muses" are and how to create one in 2-4 weeks.
- How to cultivate selective ignorance—and create time—with a low-information diet.
- Management secrets of Remote Control CEOs.
- The crucial difference between absolute and relative income.
- How to get free housing worldwide and airfare at 50-80% off.
- How to fill the void and creating meaning after removing work and the office.
The Italian And European Goldsmith Industry: Current Status And Possible Future Scenarios
Here is an insider view on the state of the European jewelry landscape. Even though European craftsmanship and branding may have raised the profile of their products during the course, they are faced with new realities. India and China may be the real threats in the long run. The numbers are on their side, but still European products have a perceived value in the emerging markets due to branding and that special look and feel. It's all in the state of mind of most consumers. The only way to stay on top will be to innovate and find your own niche in the already crowded jewelry market (s) of the world.
Leopoldo Poli (Co-owner, La Nouvelle Bague, Florence, Italy) writes:
Given the social, political, and cultural events of the last decade, the question before us is whether there will be genuine opportunities for growth and development for the Italian and European goldsmith industries. Recent events have generated crises and related difficulties, but in markets the word crisis is always synonymous with opportunity, and opportunities are truly what make the difference in the success of a company. The challenge for the next decade or two will be to transform some players in the goldsmith world from passive into active participants who turn change into opportunities.
Crisis
The economic crisis throughout Europe has put a growing number of jewelry companies at risk. Problems related to unemployment and the erosion of salaries has made the purchasing power of the middle class precarious. Only companies that know how to invest in the emotions of their clientele—persuading them to spend less in other luxury areas—have maintained a solid market share. Italy, in particular, has been at a disadvantage due to the introduction of the euro.
The second crisis is foreign competition. China, India, and Turkey, all new players on international markets, have started exporting products of increasingly high quality, benefiting from lower costs due to their highly competitive local wages.
Third, there is a crisis in the motivation to acquire gold jewelry. Other consumer market segments have taken over the role of jewelry, which has witnessed a decline in the myth of ostentation together with the emergence of functionality—new electronic gadgets, exotic travel and health spas.
Today’s European players
Today, there are four main players in Europe’s gem and jewelry industry, which have mixed prospects for the future:
1. Historic jewelry brands
They have their own history, combined with a strong tradition in both production and marketing. These firms can be expected to maintain a sizable market share, though it has been diminished by producers from lower-wage nations. The ones who will remain strong are those who organize themselves in a market-oriented way, seizing new opportunities, anticipating trends, and communicating the product emotionally via brand identity.
2. Emerging steel and silver brands
These young companies entered the market in response to the need for a new type of jewel, precious in design if not necessarily in the materials used. They have built on emotion and symbolism of their product, aiming it at the youth market. The winners will be those who know best how to interpret the trend for the hot metals, by discovering materials and designs that fit in with current styles.
3. Fashion companies
These are fashion brands that have entered the jewelry market in order to deliver a total look. They put forward industrial products that make an effort to present a distinctive design and are sophisticated technologically, flaunting their Italian workmanship.
4. Small artisanal companies
These are small, traditional manufacturing companies that develop their brands and are characterized by high quality craftsmanship. Some are disappearing because others have eroded their market share, and some are winners thanks to the intrinsic strength of the artisanal product. Those companies that put forward innovative designs, distinct from mass-produced items, will succeed. Opportunities for these companies are both in the specialist sector serving the big brands, and in the promotion of their own brands with high quality product.
Trends and the Trendsetter
The strength of a brand is measured in emotional terms; the key is to conduct a dialogue in a differentiated way with one’s clientele. Choosing the right communication means significantly enhancing the value of a product so that a larger slice of the population will want to trade up.
In every area of business, the most enthusiastic client is the trendsetter. Successful producers cater to tastemakers who influence and infect other groups of consumers. By knowing the trendsetters and working with them, we can achieve success without excessive investments in advertisement, because the product is truly exceptional.
Industrial production that lacks added value will be penalized. Therefore, we should continue to develop products with strong artisanal characteristics that value their origins and traditions. Italy has an enviable tradition of fashion and design. In this respect, our competitors are at a disadvantage because they are not creators of trends.
Leopoldo Poli (Co-owner, La Nouvelle Bague, Florence, Italy) writes:
Given the social, political, and cultural events of the last decade, the question before us is whether there will be genuine opportunities for growth and development for the Italian and European goldsmith industries. Recent events have generated crises and related difficulties, but in markets the word crisis is always synonymous with opportunity, and opportunities are truly what make the difference in the success of a company. The challenge for the next decade or two will be to transform some players in the goldsmith world from passive into active participants who turn change into opportunities.
Crisis
The economic crisis throughout Europe has put a growing number of jewelry companies at risk. Problems related to unemployment and the erosion of salaries has made the purchasing power of the middle class precarious. Only companies that know how to invest in the emotions of their clientele—persuading them to spend less in other luxury areas—have maintained a solid market share. Italy, in particular, has been at a disadvantage due to the introduction of the euro.
The second crisis is foreign competition. China, India, and Turkey, all new players on international markets, have started exporting products of increasingly high quality, benefiting from lower costs due to their highly competitive local wages.
Third, there is a crisis in the motivation to acquire gold jewelry. Other consumer market segments have taken over the role of jewelry, which has witnessed a decline in the myth of ostentation together with the emergence of functionality—new electronic gadgets, exotic travel and health spas.
Today’s European players
Today, there are four main players in Europe’s gem and jewelry industry, which have mixed prospects for the future:
1. Historic jewelry brands
They have their own history, combined with a strong tradition in both production and marketing. These firms can be expected to maintain a sizable market share, though it has been diminished by producers from lower-wage nations. The ones who will remain strong are those who organize themselves in a market-oriented way, seizing new opportunities, anticipating trends, and communicating the product emotionally via brand identity.
2. Emerging steel and silver brands
These young companies entered the market in response to the need for a new type of jewel, precious in design if not necessarily in the materials used. They have built on emotion and symbolism of their product, aiming it at the youth market. The winners will be those who know best how to interpret the trend for the hot metals, by discovering materials and designs that fit in with current styles.
3. Fashion companies
These are fashion brands that have entered the jewelry market in order to deliver a total look. They put forward industrial products that make an effort to present a distinctive design and are sophisticated technologically, flaunting their Italian workmanship.
4. Small artisanal companies
These are small, traditional manufacturing companies that develop their brands and are characterized by high quality craftsmanship. Some are disappearing because others have eroded their market share, and some are winners thanks to the intrinsic strength of the artisanal product. Those companies that put forward innovative designs, distinct from mass-produced items, will succeed. Opportunities for these companies are both in the specialist sector serving the big brands, and in the promotion of their own brands with high quality product.
Trends and the Trendsetter
The strength of a brand is measured in emotional terms; the key is to conduct a dialogue in a differentiated way with one’s clientele. Choosing the right communication means significantly enhancing the value of a product so that a larger slice of the population will want to trade up.
In every area of business, the most enthusiastic client is the trendsetter. Successful producers cater to tastemakers who influence and infect other groups of consumers. By knowing the trendsetters and working with them, we can achieve success without excessive investments in advertisement, because the product is truly exceptional.
Industrial production that lacks added value will be penalized. Therefore, we should continue to develop products with strong artisanal characteristics that value their origins and traditions. Italy has an enviable tradition of fashion and design. In this respect, our competitors are at a disadvantage because they are not creators of trends.
Small Jewellers Join Hands To Create Brands
I think it's a bold move by small jewelers in India. Other jewelry markets in the world may want to follow up with the concept. The effectiveness may depend on the delivery mechanism. How are they going to reach the middle + bottom of the pyramid? Only time will tell.
Tejal A Deshpande writes:
This is one trend that could redefine modern retail in India. As the large jewellery brands snatch market share away from smaller players, the small jewellers (the mom-and-pop equivalent of grocery retail outlets) are coming together to form an umbrella brand and share a common marketing strategy.
Industry experts indicated that this generic effort will enhance product availability through common sourcing and help small retailers climb up the value chain. "Jewellery retailing has to be perceived as a focused marketing activity as the concept of loyal customers is a myth. With the entry of new players and competition from other sectors, there is a need to retain existing customers and attract new ones," said Dharmesh Sodah, director, World Gold Council.
Indian consumers generally make jewellery purchases from family jewellers. However, with the entry of branded players in the market, the consumers, especially the younger lot, are graduating to buying branded jewellery. This trend is affecting the neighbourhood jeweller who is not a franchisee for the big brands such as Tanishq, Gili and others.
According to industry experts, individual entrepreneurs are uniting to offer a uniform retail experience. For instance, four to five jewellers from different parts of Mumbai will form an umbrella brand and adopt common marketing and advertising strategy.
Ashok Minawala, president, Gems and Jewellery Federation said, "The emergence of organised retail will make jewellery industry more professional and prepared to face challenges. Companies with better systems and management will have upper edge on dictating trends in retailing." He mentioned that entry of corporate firms into retail would bring in new buyers, thus promoting the growth of jewellery manufacturers and wholesalers.
Another significant trend in jewellery retailing is penetration in the rural areas. Tanishq has started focusing on the lower end of the market through its brand, Gold Plus. This targets customers who buy gold as an investment product rather than for immediate use. The industry is expecting increased activity in the rural sector, with jewellers opening shops in the smaller markets. "While branded jewellery is becoming popular in cities, the rural population buys jewellery for sentimental and religious values such as weddings and investments. Local jewellers have started opening shops at the district and taluka levels for catering to the newer markets," said Fatehchand Ranka of Pune-based Ranka Jewellers.
The Rs 70,000 crore Indian gems and jewellery industry is also witnessing a tie-up of brands with large format retailers. Goldiam International the manufacturer of Ola brand of silver jewellery, has tied up with Future Group to develop jewellery for Gold Bazaar.
More info @ http://www.rediff.com/money/2007/jun/06brand.htm
Tejal A Deshpande writes:
This is one trend that could redefine modern retail in India. As the large jewellery brands snatch market share away from smaller players, the small jewellers (the mom-and-pop equivalent of grocery retail outlets) are coming together to form an umbrella brand and share a common marketing strategy.
Industry experts indicated that this generic effort will enhance product availability through common sourcing and help small retailers climb up the value chain. "Jewellery retailing has to be perceived as a focused marketing activity as the concept of loyal customers is a myth. With the entry of new players and competition from other sectors, there is a need to retain existing customers and attract new ones," said Dharmesh Sodah, director, World Gold Council.
Indian consumers generally make jewellery purchases from family jewellers. However, with the entry of branded players in the market, the consumers, especially the younger lot, are graduating to buying branded jewellery. This trend is affecting the neighbourhood jeweller who is not a franchisee for the big brands such as Tanishq, Gili and others.
According to industry experts, individual entrepreneurs are uniting to offer a uniform retail experience. For instance, four to five jewellers from different parts of Mumbai will form an umbrella brand and adopt common marketing and advertising strategy.
Ashok Minawala, president, Gems and Jewellery Federation said, "The emergence of organised retail will make jewellery industry more professional and prepared to face challenges. Companies with better systems and management will have upper edge on dictating trends in retailing." He mentioned that entry of corporate firms into retail would bring in new buyers, thus promoting the growth of jewellery manufacturers and wholesalers.
Another significant trend in jewellery retailing is penetration in the rural areas. Tanishq has started focusing on the lower end of the market through its brand, Gold Plus. This targets customers who buy gold as an investment product rather than for immediate use. The industry is expecting increased activity in the rural sector, with jewellers opening shops in the smaller markets. "While branded jewellery is becoming popular in cities, the rural population buys jewellery for sentimental and religious values such as weddings and investments. Local jewellers have started opening shops at the district and taluka levels for catering to the newer markets," said Fatehchand Ranka of Pune-based Ranka Jewellers.
The Rs 70,000 crore Indian gems and jewellery industry is also witnessing a tie-up of brands with large format retailers. Goldiam International the manufacturer of Ola brand of silver jewellery, has tied up with Future Group to develop jewellery for Gold Bazaar.
More info @ http://www.rediff.com/money/2007/jun/06brand.htm
More On The Black Swan Concept
(via Emergic)
Here is what the Economist has to say about Nassim Taleb’s “The BlackSwan”:
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a professor of the sciences of uncertainty (who gave us “known unknowns”), has no time for the “charlatans” who think they can map the future. Forget the important things: we can't even get it right when estimating the cost of a building—witness the massively over budget Sydney Opera House or the new Wembley Stadium.
The problem is that almost all forecasters work within the parameters of the Gaussian bell curve, which ignores large deviations and thus fails to take account of “Black Swans”. Mr Taleb defines a Black Swan as an event that is unexpected, has an extreme impact and is made to seem predictable by explanations concocted afterwards. It can be both positive and negative. Examples include the September 11th 2001 attacks and the rise of the internet. Smaller shocks, such as novels and pop acts whose popularity explodes thanks to word of mouth, can also be Black Swans.
This is what The Wall Street Journal wrote:
The power-law distribution, by contrast [to the bell-curve distribution], would seem to have little to recommend it. Not only does it disproportionately reward the few, but it also turns out to be notoriously difficult to derive with precision. The most important events may occur so rarely that existing data points can never truly assure us that the future won't look very different from the present. We can be fairly certain that we will never meet anyone 14-feet tall, but it is entirely possible that, over time, we will hear of a man twice as rich as Bill Gates or witness a market crash twice as devastating as that of October 1987.
The problem, insists Mr. Taleb, is that most of the time we are in the land of the power law and don't know it…If we accept Mr. Taleb's premise about power-law ascendancy, we are left with a troubling question: How do you function in a world where accurate prediction is rarely possible, where history isn't a reliable guide to the future and where the most important events cannot be anticipated?
Mr. Taleb presents a range of answers--be prepared for various outcomes, he says, and don't rush for buses--but it's clear that he remains slightly vexed by the world he describes so vividly. Then again, beatific serenity may not be the goal here. As Mr. Taleb warns, certitude is likely to be found only in a fool's (bell-curve) paradise, where we choose the comfort of the "precisely wrong" over the challenge of the "broadly correct." Beneath Mr. Taleb's blustery rhetoric lives a surprisingly humble soul who has chosen to follow a demanding and somewhat lonely path.
Niall Ferguson wrote in The Telegraph:
Taleb's central point, then, is that we are too much influenced by instinct, history, Plato and Gauss. We assume the entire world is "Mediocristan", whereas in reality large swathes of it are "Extremistan".
The trouble is that it is much harder to live with this insight than to live without it. As Taleb's critics in the financial world will tell you (and he himself admits), merely insuring yourself against fat tail events does not constitute a profitable trading strategy. Knowing that world wars can happen roughly twice a century is like knowing that a student can run amok roughly once a decade: it doesn't allow you to predict which diplomatic/personality crisis will be the lethal one.
For practical purposes, it turns out we humans prefer to work with predictions and forecasts, even when they are nearly always wrong. We prefer to regard financial markets as casinos (what Taleb calls "the ludic fallacy" that odds are always calculable), even when they clearly aren't. And we resist paying excessive insurance premiums to cover ourselves against very remote contingencies.
Here is what the Economist has to say about Nassim Taleb’s “The BlackSwan”:
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a professor of the sciences of uncertainty (who gave us “known unknowns”), has no time for the “charlatans” who think they can map the future. Forget the important things: we can't even get it right when estimating the cost of a building—witness the massively over budget Sydney Opera House or the new Wembley Stadium.
The problem is that almost all forecasters work within the parameters of the Gaussian bell curve, which ignores large deviations and thus fails to take account of “Black Swans”. Mr Taleb defines a Black Swan as an event that is unexpected, has an extreme impact and is made to seem predictable by explanations concocted afterwards. It can be both positive and negative. Examples include the September 11th 2001 attacks and the rise of the internet. Smaller shocks, such as novels and pop acts whose popularity explodes thanks to word of mouth, can also be Black Swans.
This is what The Wall Street Journal wrote:
The power-law distribution, by contrast [to the bell-curve distribution], would seem to have little to recommend it. Not only does it disproportionately reward the few, but it also turns out to be notoriously difficult to derive with precision. The most important events may occur so rarely that existing data points can never truly assure us that the future won't look very different from the present. We can be fairly certain that we will never meet anyone 14-feet tall, but it is entirely possible that, over time, we will hear of a man twice as rich as Bill Gates or witness a market crash twice as devastating as that of October 1987.
The problem, insists Mr. Taleb, is that most of the time we are in the land of the power law and don't know it…If we accept Mr. Taleb's premise about power-law ascendancy, we are left with a troubling question: How do you function in a world where accurate prediction is rarely possible, where history isn't a reliable guide to the future and where the most important events cannot be anticipated?
Mr. Taleb presents a range of answers--be prepared for various outcomes, he says, and don't rush for buses--but it's clear that he remains slightly vexed by the world he describes so vividly. Then again, beatific serenity may not be the goal here. As Mr. Taleb warns, certitude is likely to be found only in a fool's (bell-curve) paradise, where we choose the comfort of the "precisely wrong" over the challenge of the "broadly correct." Beneath Mr. Taleb's blustery rhetoric lives a surprisingly humble soul who has chosen to follow a demanding and somewhat lonely path.
Niall Ferguson wrote in The Telegraph:
Taleb's central point, then, is that we are too much influenced by instinct, history, Plato and Gauss. We assume the entire world is "Mediocristan", whereas in reality large swathes of it are "Extremistan".
The trouble is that it is much harder to live with this insight than to live without it. As Taleb's critics in the financial world will tell you (and he himself admits), merely insuring yourself against fat tail events does not constitute a profitable trading strategy. Knowing that world wars can happen roughly twice a century is like knowing that a student can run amok roughly once a decade: it doesn't allow you to predict which diplomatic/personality crisis will be the lethal one.
For practical purposes, it turns out we humans prefer to work with predictions and forecasts, even when they are nearly always wrong. We prefer to regard financial markets as casinos (what Taleb calls "the ludic fallacy" that odds are always calculable), even when they clearly aren't. And we resist paying excessive insurance premiums to cover ourselves against very remote contingencies.
Wednesday, June 06, 2007
Black Swan: Definition
I have always been curious about the Black Swan concept. Then it dawned upon me that when you look at yourself and the strange events that follow nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. It becomes a unique total internal reflection. I think this concept should have practical applications in the colored stone and diamond industry. Black Swan is a one hundred carat statement + it's priceless.
Business World spoke to Nassim Taleb. Excerpts from the interview:
What is a Black Swan?
Medieval Europeans had only ever seen white swans. In fact, any impossible event was termed a ‘black swan’. So, when the first settlers reached Australia, they were shocked to find black swans all over! Taleb's black swans are those events that were once thought impossible, but when they occur, hit hard. In this extract, he writes about how we create narratives after ‘black swan’ events; making them seem predictable after they occur.
Why are black swans important?
People say “Taleb wants us to worry about meteorites hitting Earth.” I want to help people navigate in a world where we don’t have a clear understanding of reality. Black Swan is essentially a map of how to deal with such a reality. The book distinguished between [two imaginary places] Mediocristan and Extremistan. In Mediocristan, variations in any sample do not result in large deviations from the average. The question, then, is which domains or areas have highly consequential variables? These places are Extremistan.…What are some of the classic examples of black swan events? A classic black swan event is the First War (World War I). It was not as predictable as people believe it was. Then you have all this technology — computers, lasers. Their future uses could never be predicted when they were invented.
Wired also interviews Nassim Taleb:
With better models and more computational power, won't we get better at predicting Black Swans?
We know from chaos theory that even if you had a perfect model of the world, you'd need infinite precision in order to predict future events. With sociopolitical or economic phenomena, we don't have anything like that. And things are getting worse, not better, because the growing complexity of the world dwarfs any improvement in sophistication or computational power.
So what do we do? If we can't forecast the really important things, how do we act?
You need to ask, "If the Black Swan hits me, will it help me or hurt me?" You cannot figure out the probability of a Black Swan hitting. But if you're in a business that's prone to negative Black Swans, like catastrophe insurance, I advise you not to take your forecasting seriously — and to think about getting into a different business. You don't want to be a sucker. What you want are situations where you can have as much of the good uncertainty as possible, where nothing too bad can happen to you, and where you have what I call free options. All of technology, really, is about maximizing free options. It's like venture capital: Most of the money you make is from things you weren't looking for. But you find them only if you search.
Wikipedia has more on Nassim Taleb.
Business World spoke to Nassim Taleb. Excerpts from the interview:
What is a Black Swan?
Medieval Europeans had only ever seen white swans. In fact, any impossible event was termed a ‘black swan’. So, when the first settlers reached Australia, they were shocked to find black swans all over! Taleb's black swans are those events that were once thought impossible, but when they occur, hit hard. In this extract, he writes about how we create narratives after ‘black swan’ events; making them seem predictable after they occur.
Why are black swans important?
People say “Taleb wants us to worry about meteorites hitting Earth.” I want to help people navigate in a world where we don’t have a clear understanding of reality. Black Swan is essentially a map of how to deal with such a reality. The book distinguished between [two imaginary places] Mediocristan and Extremistan. In Mediocristan, variations in any sample do not result in large deviations from the average. The question, then, is which domains or areas have highly consequential variables? These places are Extremistan.…What are some of the classic examples of black swan events? A classic black swan event is the First War (World War I). It was not as predictable as people believe it was. Then you have all this technology — computers, lasers. Their future uses could never be predicted when they were invented.
Wired also interviews Nassim Taleb:
With better models and more computational power, won't we get better at predicting Black Swans?
We know from chaos theory that even if you had a perfect model of the world, you'd need infinite precision in order to predict future events. With sociopolitical or economic phenomena, we don't have anything like that. And things are getting worse, not better, because the growing complexity of the world dwarfs any improvement in sophistication or computational power.
So what do we do? If we can't forecast the really important things, how do we act?
You need to ask, "If the Black Swan hits me, will it help me or hurt me?" You cannot figure out the probability of a Black Swan hitting. But if you're in a business that's prone to negative Black Swans, like catastrophe insurance, I advise you not to take your forecasting seriously — and to think about getting into a different business. You don't want to be a sucker. What you want are situations where you can have as much of the good uncertainty as possible, where nothing too bad can happen to you, and where you have what I call free options. All of technology, really, is about maximizing free options. It's like venture capital: Most of the money you make is from things you weren't looking for. But you find them only if you search.
Wikipedia has more on Nassim Taleb.
Source Type Classification Of Gem Corundum
I totally agree with Shane McClure because I understand the methodology, but many don't. As always, the problem is finding consensus among the gem dealers, colored stone grading experts, retailers and consumers. Today the gem trade and lab gemologists are having a hard time finding the 'sweet words' to convey the 'good news' to the consumers in a tone that makes sense. Keep trying.
Shane F McClure (GIA) writes:
The visual characteristics that gemologists and gem traders look for when examining a gemstone—such as hue, tone, saturation, and diaphenity—are the direct result of geologic environment in which the stone formed. This environment determines the stone’s chemical composition, growth structures, and inclusions suites, all of which affect its overall appearance. These factors are common for all gems, but are particularly significant in corundum.
While many different types of growth environments are possible, for corundum they can be broadly categorized into two main groups: metamorphic and magma-related; the later will be referred to simply as magmatic in this abstract. The largest distinction between these environments is that the metamorphic corundum formed in the earth’s upper crust, whereas the magmatic corundum crystallized much deeper in the earth at mid-crust or lower-crust/mantle levels. Eruptive forces are necessary to transport corundum from the latter group to the earth’s surface (typically in all alkali basaltic magma), so it is referred to as magmatic. While these two broad categories of sources for corundum may be readily distinguished by a combination of standard gemological and advanced analytical techniques, they can also commonly be recognized visually by a knowledgeable observer.
Beyond these two broad source designations, there exists a potential to further classify rubies and sapphires of all colors based on their dominant inclusion features and other physical characteristics. These inclusion features may influence the face-up appearance of a ruby or sapphire. For example, ‘milky’ zonal clouds of submicroscopic particles are responsible for the soft appearance or ‘velvety texture’ of blue Kashmir sapphires. Other possible features are concentrations of rutile needles, platelets, and particles that are commonly referred to as silk, which are typical of rubies and sapphires from Mogok, Myanmar (Burma). Such features, although commonly associated with a specific geographic source (e.g., Kashmir or Myanmar), more accurately distinguish a particular type of ruby or sapphire. Each corundum type shares other properties—including absorption spectra, chemical trends, and growth structures—which may be encountered in stones from more than one deposit or country.
What is proposed here is a classification for rubies and sapphires using a system that is objective, repeatable, teachable and relevant. It does not attempt to pinpoint geographic locality or specific deposit, but it does provide information that directly relates to a stone’s appearance and position in the marketplace. The intent is to supply information to the trade that will be useful and consistent in representing their stones, which in turn should benefit the consumer as well.
Shane F McClure (GIA) writes:
The visual characteristics that gemologists and gem traders look for when examining a gemstone—such as hue, tone, saturation, and diaphenity—are the direct result of geologic environment in which the stone formed. This environment determines the stone’s chemical composition, growth structures, and inclusions suites, all of which affect its overall appearance. These factors are common for all gems, but are particularly significant in corundum.
While many different types of growth environments are possible, for corundum they can be broadly categorized into two main groups: metamorphic and magma-related; the later will be referred to simply as magmatic in this abstract. The largest distinction between these environments is that the metamorphic corundum formed in the earth’s upper crust, whereas the magmatic corundum crystallized much deeper in the earth at mid-crust or lower-crust/mantle levels. Eruptive forces are necessary to transport corundum from the latter group to the earth’s surface (typically in all alkali basaltic magma), so it is referred to as magmatic. While these two broad categories of sources for corundum may be readily distinguished by a combination of standard gemological and advanced analytical techniques, they can also commonly be recognized visually by a knowledgeable observer.
Beyond these two broad source designations, there exists a potential to further classify rubies and sapphires of all colors based on their dominant inclusion features and other physical characteristics. These inclusion features may influence the face-up appearance of a ruby or sapphire. For example, ‘milky’ zonal clouds of submicroscopic particles are responsible for the soft appearance or ‘velvety texture’ of blue Kashmir sapphires. Other possible features are concentrations of rutile needles, platelets, and particles that are commonly referred to as silk, which are typical of rubies and sapphires from Mogok, Myanmar (Burma). Such features, although commonly associated with a specific geographic source (e.g., Kashmir or Myanmar), more accurately distinguish a particular type of ruby or sapphire. Each corundum type shares other properties—including absorption spectra, chemical trends, and growth structures—which may be encountered in stones from more than one deposit or country.
What is proposed here is a classification for rubies and sapphires using a system that is objective, repeatable, teachable and relevant. It does not attempt to pinpoint geographic locality or specific deposit, but it does provide information that directly relates to a stone’s appearance and position in the marketplace. The intent is to supply information to the trade that will be useful and consistent in representing their stones, which in turn should benefit the consumer as well.
How To Learn About Gemstone Pricing
Gem trade shows are excellent venues to get a feel for prices. Gems and jewelry can also be purchased at international auction houses such as the Christie's, Philips, Sotheby's, etc, but participation requires knowledge, special skills and a lot of money. Most gem shows specify in advance whether or not they are exclusively for the jewelry trade.
- If designated 'trade only', prices are generally at the wholesale level.
- If open to the public, prices are often lower than retail, but not at a wholesale level.
In order to get into a trade-only show, one must have some form of identification (e.g., a business card with connections to the jewelry trade or some other proof that you are in the gem trade). For some fairs, a business card alone is not sufficient, and your company may have to be listed and rated in a trade directory for that particular country.
At the Tucson show, exhibitions and seminars take place simultaneously across the whole city, making it the largest colored stone show in the world. Nearly every hotel in the city has a gem show in their convention halls, as well as dealers selling gems and jewelry from their hotel rooms. Other important shows include the Bangkok Gem & Jewelry show, the Hong Kong show, Basel Fair (Switzerland) and the JCK show (USA). Such trade shows are an excellent way to learn about the market, both in terms of pricing, as well as designs and industry trends.
At most trade shows, you will encounter a wide range of goods of all qualities. A common misconception is that rubies are always more valuable than the more readily available stones, such as tourmaline, garnet or topaz. If you spend enough time looking around the shows, you will find this is not always true. A poor-quality ruby is a poor-quality ruby, and a fine-quality rubellite tourmaline or tsavorite garnet will certainly be worth considerably more. Quality is the decisive factor, not just the particular type of gem.
There are two main ways for the novice to learn about colored stone pricing. The first, and perhaps best, is to visit as many gem wholesalers as possible. Wholesalers may be visited at trade shows or via appointments at their offices. During these visits, be sure to take mental notes on the prices of selected goods (blue sapphire, ruby or whatever happens to interest you). As you move from one wholesaler to another, try to compare prices of the same relative size and quality, in order to develop a feel for the current price range of those items. The key word here is 'range'. Three or four wholesalers may offer 1 ct medium-quality sapphires or rubies at similar prices, but it is unlikely that their prices will be exactly the same (for instance, one dealer might have contacts with a particular mine or rough dealer).
Trade publications such as the Guide (USA) and Rapaport (USA) may provide information on prices for colored stones and diamonds. As you collect and sort this information, be aware that it is subject to change over periods of years, months, or even weeks, depending on market trends or supply and demand.
- If designated 'trade only', prices are generally at the wholesale level.
- If open to the public, prices are often lower than retail, but not at a wholesale level.
In order to get into a trade-only show, one must have some form of identification (e.g., a business card with connections to the jewelry trade or some other proof that you are in the gem trade). For some fairs, a business card alone is not sufficient, and your company may have to be listed and rated in a trade directory for that particular country.
At the Tucson show, exhibitions and seminars take place simultaneously across the whole city, making it the largest colored stone show in the world. Nearly every hotel in the city has a gem show in their convention halls, as well as dealers selling gems and jewelry from their hotel rooms. Other important shows include the Bangkok Gem & Jewelry show, the Hong Kong show, Basel Fair (Switzerland) and the JCK show (USA). Such trade shows are an excellent way to learn about the market, both in terms of pricing, as well as designs and industry trends.
At most trade shows, you will encounter a wide range of goods of all qualities. A common misconception is that rubies are always more valuable than the more readily available stones, such as tourmaline, garnet or topaz. If you spend enough time looking around the shows, you will find this is not always true. A poor-quality ruby is a poor-quality ruby, and a fine-quality rubellite tourmaline or tsavorite garnet will certainly be worth considerably more. Quality is the decisive factor, not just the particular type of gem.
There are two main ways for the novice to learn about colored stone pricing. The first, and perhaps best, is to visit as many gem wholesalers as possible. Wholesalers may be visited at trade shows or via appointments at their offices. During these visits, be sure to take mental notes on the prices of selected goods (blue sapphire, ruby or whatever happens to interest you). As you move from one wholesaler to another, try to compare prices of the same relative size and quality, in order to develop a feel for the current price range of those items. The key word here is 'range'. Three or four wholesalers may offer 1 ct medium-quality sapphires or rubies at similar prices, but it is unlikely that their prices will be exactly the same (for instance, one dealer might have contacts with a particular mine or rough dealer).
Trade publications such as the Guide (USA) and Rapaport (USA) may provide information on prices for colored stones and diamonds. As you collect and sort this information, be aware that it is subject to change over periods of years, months, or even weeks, depending on market trends or supply and demand.
Treated Topaz
In most respects, topaz is an excellent gem. Its one real defect is an easy cleavage parallel to the basal plane. As a result, durability is fair, even though the hardness is eight on the Moh’s scale. There is a clear distinction in quality and value between the different colors in topaz.
The color of most pink topaz is produced by heat treatment of sherry brown material. Such stones are termed pinked or fired. The resulting color is stable. Over 99% of all blue topaz sold today is the product of treatment. Pale blue or colorless material is irradiated, turning it brown. Then it is heat treated to induce a handsome blue (stable) or green (unstable) color. Depending upon the type of treatment used, light to medium aquamarine-like blue is produced, as well as deep 'Super' and 'Swiss' blues not met with in nature. Also note that a fair percentage of brown topaz (and possibly other colors) has resulted from natural irradiation. Much brown topaz fades on exposure to sunlight.
Coated topaz is becoming popular in the gem industry because of its availability in a wide variety of colors such as blue to green, pink, orange, and in multi-colors. The stones are attractive but most colors are produced by dyeing or sputtering method, and can be easily removed. Some of the coatings, especially pink deceived many experts because the coatings were on the pavilion. In the gem testing laboratory analytical tests are usually performed on the table, but when analyzed from the side the coatings are easily detected.
There is another type that produces green and blue colors, which is perceived to be a different type of diffusion process than simple coating. The colors may not be that easy to remove by scratching or exposure to acetone, but immersion in hydrofluoric acid may cause discoloration. The experts believe that green-coated topaz by immersion in hydrochloric acid and hydrofluoric acid for an hour or more may dissolve the coating. The result (s) from laboratory experiments and proper analysis suggests that diffusion of chemical elements into the topaz may not have occurred, instead some chemical reaction between the topaz and coating may have taken place to prevent the easy removal of colors. Gem treatment identification is a logical process of deduction or alternatively of elimination. Obviously the first step is to look at the stone and note its color and other visually determinable properties followed by more complex and time consuming steps. With analytical instruments, color causing elements can be easily detected with reference samples and data without any destructive tests.
As usual, the colored stone industry will always encounter new and more durable surface coating techniques because consumers want new colors at an affordable price. If in doubt always consult a reputed gem testing laboratory.
The color of most pink topaz is produced by heat treatment of sherry brown material. Such stones are termed pinked or fired. The resulting color is stable. Over 99% of all blue topaz sold today is the product of treatment. Pale blue or colorless material is irradiated, turning it brown. Then it is heat treated to induce a handsome blue (stable) or green (unstable) color. Depending upon the type of treatment used, light to medium aquamarine-like blue is produced, as well as deep 'Super' and 'Swiss' blues not met with in nature. Also note that a fair percentage of brown topaz (and possibly other colors) has resulted from natural irradiation. Much brown topaz fades on exposure to sunlight.
Coated topaz is becoming popular in the gem industry because of its availability in a wide variety of colors such as blue to green, pink, orange, and in multi-colors. The stones are attractive but most colors are produced by dyeing or sputtering method, and can be easily removed. Some of the coatings, especially pink deceived many experts because the coatings were on the pavilion. In the gem testing laboratory analytical tests are usually performed on the table, but when analyzed from the side the coatings are easily detected.
There is another type that produces green and blue colors, which is perceived to be a different type of diffusion process than simple coating. The colors may not be that easy to remove by scratching or exposure to acetone, but immersion in hydrofluoric acid may cause discoloration. The experts believe that green-coated topaz by immersion in hydrochloric acid and hydrofluoric acid for an hour or more may dissolve the coating. The result (s) from laboratory experiments and proper analysis suggests that diffusion of chemical elements into the topaz may not have occurred, instead some chemical reaction between the topaz and coating may have taken place to prevent the easy removal of colors. Gem treatment identification is a logical process of deduction or alternatively of elimination. Obviously the first step is to look at the stone and note its color and other visually determinable properties followed by more complex and time consuming steps. With analytical instruments, color causing elements can be easily detected with reference samples and data without any destructive tests.
As usual, the colored stone industry will always encounter new and more durable surface coating techniques because consumers want new colors at an affordable price. If in doubt always consult a reputed gem testing laboratory.
Tuesday, June 05, 2007
The Way We Are
Memorable quote (s) from the movie:
Hubbell Gardner (Robert Redford): People are more important than their principles.
Katie Morosky Gardner (Barbara Streisand): People are their principles.
Hubbell Gardner (Robert Redford): People are more important than their principles.
Katie Morosky Gardner (Barbara Streisand): People are their principles.
Recent Trends In World Gem Production
There are no reliable statistics on gemstone production for many reasons, but Thomas Yager has compiled nearly-accurate statistics on the state of the global colored stone gemstones production.
Thomas R Yager (US Geological Survey) writes:
Estimates of world colored gemstone production are inherently difficult because of the fragmentary nature of the industry, the lack of government oversight in many countries where colored gemstones are mined, and the wide variation in quality of the production. Therefore, global production figures for colored gemstones have not been published previously by the USGS, although data are available for some individual countries.
Based on government data, company reports, and a review of the colored gemstone mining literature, the overall emerald, ruby, sapphire, and tanzanite production from 1995 to 2004 have been estimated. Amethyst and garnet production figures for selected countries also have been compiled.
Global emerald production increased from about 3600 kg in 1995 to 5900 kg in 2004; output rose in Colombia, Brazil, Madagascar, and Zambia. Colombia’s status as the world’s leading emerald produced was challenged by Brazil and Zambia. Brazil’s emerald production increased sharply because of the development of large-scale mechanized mines.
World ruby production is also estimated to have increased, from about 4400kg in 1995 to 9100kg 2004. This increase was primarily attributable to greater production in Kenya, which tends to mine cabochon grade ruby. Production declines in Myanmar and Tanzania were reversed in 2001 and 2004, respectively. Madagascar’s ruby output increased because of the discovery of the Andilamena and Vatomandry mining areas.
Global sapphire production is estimated to have declined from about 26200 kg in 1995 to 22600 kg in 2004 as production increases in Madagascar and Sri Lanka were more than offset by decreases in Australia and Tanzania. In Australia, large-scale mining operations shut down or reduced output because of the depletion of near surface deposits by artisanal and small scale miners. In Madagascar, the discovery of sapphire at IIakaka and Sakaraha led to substantial increases in production from 1998-2000, but output has declined in 2003-2004. Sri Lanka’s production of geuda increased in 2003-2004.
Tanzanite produced declined from about 6500 kg in 2002 to 3100 kg in 2004 because of a lack of new deposits being discovered and higher costs associated with the increasing depths of small-scale mines in Blocks B and D at Merelani; cutbacks in production have not been offset by mechanized mining in Block C.
Gem production has shifted rapidly between countries and within countries in recent years. With the depletion of near-surface alluvial deposits, colored gemstone mining is likely to shift from small-scale to large-scale operations.
Thomas R Yager (US Geological Survey) writes:
Estimates of world colored gemstone production are inherently difficult because of the fragmentary nature of the industry, the lack of government oversight in many countries where colored gemstones are mined, and the wide variation in quality of the production. Therefore, global production figures for colored gemstones have not been published previously by the USGS, although data are available for some individual countries.
Based on government data, company reports, and a review of the colored gemstone mining literature, the overall emerald, ruby, sapphire, and tanzanite production from 1995 to 2004 have been estimated. Amethyst and garnet production figures for selected countries also have been compiled.
Global emerald production increased from about 3600 kg in 1995 to 5900 kg in 2004; output rose in Colombia, Brazil, Madagascar, and Zambia. Colombia’s status as the world’s leading emerald produced was challenged by Brazil and Zambia. Brazil’s emerald production increased sharply because of the development of large-scale mechanized mines.
World ruby production is also estimated to have increased, from about 4400kg in 1995 to 9100kg 2004. This increase was primarily attributable to greater production in Kenya, which tends to mine cabochon grade ruby. Production declines in Myanmar and Tanzania were reversed in 2001 and 2004, respectively. Madagascar’s ruby output increased because of the discovery of the Andilamena and Vatomandry mining areas.
Global sapphire production is estimated to have declined from about 26200 kg in 1995 to 22600 kg in 2004 as production increases in Madagascar and Sri Lanka were more than offset by decreases in Australia and Tanzania. In Australia, large-scale mining operations shut down or reduced output because of the depletion of near surface deposits by artisanal and small scale miners. In Madagascar, the discovery of sapphire at IIakaka and Sakaraha led to substantial increases in production from 1998-2000, but output has declined in 2003-2004. Sri Lanka’s production of geuda increased in 2003-2004.
Tanzanite produced declined from about 6500 kg in 2002 to 3100 kg in 2004 because of a lack of new deposits being discovered and higher costs associated with the increasing depths of small-scale mines in Blocks B and D at Merelani; cutbacks in production have not been offset by mechanized mining in Block C.
Gem production has shifted rapidly between countries and within countries in recent years. With the depletion of near-surface alluvial deposits, colored gemstone mining is likely to shift from small-scale to large-scale operations.
The Gulf Perspective
Amit Dhamani is a well-known and influential figure in the gem and jewerly circle in the Middle East. He is an insider and knows the pulse of the business. His opinions are invaluable.
Amit Dhamani (MD, Dhamani Jewels, Dubai, UAE) writes:
The Gulf region, comprised of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman, is one of the fastest rising commercial centers on the global map. The state of Dubai, in the UAE, has embarked on an aggressive growth strategy by liberalizing its economy and reaching out to global partners in many key industries, making it the gateway to the Gulf. With gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 9.4% last year, the second highest in the world, Dubai has become a major upscale tourist and business destination for travelers from Europe, Russia, India, and neighboring Asian countries.
More than 120 shipping lines and 105 airlines connect Dubai to 145 + global destinations. Supported by a superior transportation, telecommunications, and finance infrastructure, Dubai is well equipped to manage some of the world’s most sophisticated and ambitious projects to date.
Liberal tax and property ownership laws have attracted wealthy expatriates, creating a business boom. Out of a population of 1.2 million, 60% are from 140 different nations. Fueled by oil and the booming real estate and retail sectors, the region has one of the world’s highest per capita incomes; coupled with the growth of tourism and the population’s affinity for gems and precious metals, its jewelry market has grown at a faster rate than anywhere else in the world. Jewelry sales reached $15 billion in the Gulf countries last year, of which diamond jewelry sales accounted for $3.5 billion; these figures are growing by leaps and bounds.
In Dubai alone, estimated retail jewelry sales were $3billion last year, with half of this for diamond jewelry. The average per capita jewelry sale was $2500, the world’s highest by far. With approximately 850 retail jewelry outlets in Dubai at present, and tourists accounting for 54% of jewelry purchases, these figures are bound to continue rising in the future; it is estimated that 40 million tourists will be visiting this region by 2015, up from 9 million presently.
Consumers in the Gulf region tends to prefer diamonds in all shapes at 0.50 ct and above, usually D-I color and VVS-SI clarity ranges, with certificates from international labs. Diamond watches are quite popular, especially international brands. As with many other major markets, the favored colored stones are emeralds, rubies and sapphires. Among the many retailers already operating in the Gulf countries are world renowned houses such as Tiffany, Cartier, Bulgari, De Beers, Chopard, Dhamani, and Damas.
With the establishment of the DMCC (Dubai Multi Commodities Center), the Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange, the Dubai Diamond Exchange, the Dubai Gem Certification, and the Dubai Cut Diamond, Dubai has become a major global player. DMCC is the arm of the Government of Dubai that is helping create market opportunities for all businesses. To date, 850 international companies have listed with the DMCC. The 64-floor Al-Mas Tower, which is scheduled form completion by the end of 2007, is solely dedicated to diamond traders, local and international. All told, Dubai’s jewelry retail space is expected to triple in the next five years.
Dubai also hosts international jewelry shows and exhibitions year-round, with the ICA congress set to be held there in 2007.These events serve as yet another platform for international jewelry companies to make their way into this market.
With new developments taking place at a rapid pace, Dubai and the Gulf hold enormous growth potential for all international businesses. Dubai welcomes the world’s gem and jewelry industry to be a part of history in the making.
Amit Dhamani (MD, Dhamani Jewels, Dubai, UAE) writes:
The Gulf region, comprised of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman, is one of the fastest rising commercial centers on the global map. The state of Dubai, in the UAE, has embarked on an aggressive growth strategy by liberalizing its economy and reaching out to global partners in many key industries, making it the gateway to the Gulf. With gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 9.4% last year, the second highest in the world, Dubai has become a major upscale tourist and business destination for travelers from Europe, Russia, India, and neighboring Asian countries.
More than 120 shipping lines and 105 airlines connect Dubai to 145 + global destinations. Supported by a superior transportation, telecommunications, and finance infrastructure, Dubai is well equipped to manage some of the world’s most sophisticated and ambitious projects to date.
Liberal tax and property ownership laws have attracted wealthy expatriates, creating a business boom. Out of a population of 1.2 million, 60% are from 140 different nations. Fueled by oil and the booming real estate and retail sectors, the region has one of the world’s highest per capita incomes; coupled with the growth of tourism and the population’s affinity for gems and precious metals, its jewelry market has grown at a faster rate than anywhere else in the world. Jewelry sales reached $15 billion in the Gulf countries last year, of which diamond jewelry sales accounted for $3.5 billion; these figures are growing by leaps and bounds.
In Dubai alone, estimated retail jewelry sales were $3billion last year, with half of this for diamond jewelry. The average per capita jewelry sale was $2500, the world’s highest by far. With approximately 850 retail jewelry outlets in Dubai at present, and tourists accounting for 54% of jewelry purchases, these figures are bound to continue rising in the future; it is estimated that 40 million tourists will be visiting this region by 2015, up from 9 million presently.
Consumers in the Gulf region tends to prefer diamonds in all shapes at 0.50 ct and above, usually D-I color and VVS-SI clarity ranges, with certificates from international labs. Diamond watches are quite popular, especially international brands. As with many other major markets, the favored colored stones are emeralds, rubies and sapphires. Among the many retailers already operating in the Gulf countries are world renowned houses such as Tiffany, Cartier, Bulgari, De Beers, Chopard, Dhamani, and Damas.
With the establishment of the DMCC (Dubai Multi Commodities Center), the Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange, the Dubai Diamond Exchange, the Dubai Gem Certification, and the Dubai Cut Diamond, Dubai has become a major global player. DMCC is the arm of the Government of Dubai that is helping create market opportunities for all businesses. To date, 850 international companies have listed with the DMCC. The 64-floor Al-Mas Tower, which is scheduled form completion by the end of 2007, is solely dedicated to diamond traders, local and international. All told, Dubai’s jewelry retail space is expected to triple in the next five years.
Dubai also hosts international jewelry shows and exhibitions year-round, with the ICA congress set to be held there in 2007.These events serve as yet another platform for international jewelry companies to make their way into this market.
With new developments taking place at a rapid pace, Dubai and the Gulf hold enormous growth potential for all international businesses. Dubai welcomes the world’s gem and jewelry industry to be a part of history in the making.
Security Advice
I think the advice is also good for gem miners, dealers in rough colored stones and diamonds, and gemologists who love to travel to exotic places looking for stones in Africa, Asia, South America and the United States.
Don't Look a Leopard in the Eye, and Other Security Advice
(via Wired) Bruce Schneier writes:
If you encounter an aggressive lion, stare him down. But not a leopard; avoid his gaze at all costs. In both cases, back away slowly; don't run. If you stumble on a pack of hyenas, run and climb a tree; hyenas can't climb trees. But don't do that if you're being chased by an elephant; he'll just knock the tree down. Stand still until he forgets about you.
I spent the last few days on safari in a South African game park, and this was just some of the security advice we were all given. What's interesting about this advice is how well-defined it is. The defenses might not be terribly effective -- you still might get eaten, gored or trampled -- but they're your best hope. Doing something else isn't advised, because animals do the same things over and over again. These are security countermeasures against specific tactics.
Lions and leopards learn tactics that work for them, and I was taught tactics to defend myself. Humans are intelligent, and that means we are more adaptable than animals. But we're also, generally speaking, lazy and stupid; and, like a lion or hyena, we will repeat tactics that work. Pickpockets use the same tricks over and over again. So do phishers, and school shooters (.pdf). If improvised explosive devices didn't work often enough, Iraqi insurgents would do something else.
So security against people generally focuses on tactics as well.
A friend of mine recently asked me where she should hide her jewelry in her apartment, so that burglars wouldn't find it. Burglars tend to look in the same places all the time -- dresser tops, night tables, dresser drawers, bathroom counters -- so hiding valuables somewhere else is more likely to be effective, especially against a burglar who is pressed for time. Leave decoy cash and jewelry in an obvious place so a burglar will think he's found your stash and then leave. Again, there's no guarantee of success, but it's your best hope.
The key to these countermeasures is to find the pattern: the common attack tactic that is worth defending against. That takes data. A single instance of an attack that didn't work -- liquid bombs, shoe bombs -- or one instance that did -- 9/11 -- is not a pattern. Implementing defensive tactics against them is the same as my safari guide saying: "We've only ever heard of one tourist encountering a lion. He stared it down and survived. Another tourist tried the same thing with a leopard, and he got eaten. So when you see a lion...." The advice I was given was based on thousands of years of collective wisdom from people encountering African animals again and again.
Compare this with the Transportation Security Administration's approach. With every unique threat, TSA implements a countermeasure with no basis to say that it helps, or that the threat will ever recur.
Furthermore, human attackers can adapt more quickly than lions. A lion won't learn that he should ignore people who stare him down, and eat them anyway. But people will learn. Burglars now know the common "secret" places people hide their valuables -- the toilet, cereal boxes, the refrigerator and freezer, the medicine cabinet, under the bed -- and look there. I told my friend to find a different secret place, and to put decoy valuables in a more obvious place.
This is the arms race of security. Common attack tactics result in common countermeasures. Eventually, those countermeasures will be evaded and new attack tactics developed. These, in turn, require new countermeasures. You can easily see this in the constant arms race that is credit card fraud, ATM fraud or automobile theft.
The result of these tactic-specific security countermeasures is to make the attacker go elsewhere. For the most part, the attacker doesn't particularly care about the target. Lions don't care who or what they eat; to a lion, you're just a conveniently packaged bag of protein. Burglars don't care which house they rob, and terrorists don't care who they kill. If your countermeasure makes the lion attack an impala instead of you, or if your burglar alarm makes the burglar rob the house next door instead of yours, that's a win for you.
Tactics matter less if the attacker is after you personally. If, for example, you have a priceless painting hanging in your living room and the burglar knows it, he's not going to rob the house next door instead -- even if you have a burglar alarm. He's going to figure out how to defeat your system. Or he'll stop you at gunpoint and force you to open the door. Or he'll pose as an air-conditioner repairman. What matters is the target, and a good attacker will consider a variety of tactics to reach his target.
This approach requires a different kind of countermeasure, but it's still well-understood in the security world. For people, it's what alarm companies, insurance companies and bodyguards specialize in. President Bush needs a different level of protection against targeted attacks than Bill Gates does, and I need a different level of protection than either of them. It would be foolish of me to hire bodyguards in case someone was targeting me for robbery or kidnapping. Yes, I would be more secure, but it's not a good security trade-off.
Al-Qaida terrorism is different yet again. The goal is to terrorize. It doesn't care about the target, but it doesn't have any pattern of tactic, either. Given that, the best way to spend our counterterrorism dollar is on intelligence, investigation and emergency response. And to refuse to be terrorized.
These measures are effective because they don't assume any particular tactic, and they don't assume any particular target. We should only apply specific countermeasures when the cost-benefit ratio makes sense (reinforcing airplane cockpit doors) or when a specific tactic is repeatedly observed (lions attacking people who don't stare them down). Otherwise, general countermeasures are far more effective a defense.
Bruce Schneier is the CTO of BT Counterpane and the author of Beyond Fear: Thinking Sensibly About Security in an Uncertain World.
Don't Look a Leopard in the Eye, and Other Security Advice
(via Wired) Bruce Schneier writes:
If you encounter an aggressive lion, stare him down. But not a leopard; avoid his gaze at all costs. In both cases, back away slowly; don't run. If you stumble on a pack of hyenas, run and climb a tree; hyenas can't climb trees. But don't do that if you're being chased by an elephant; he'll just knock the tree down. Stand still until he forgets about you.
I spent the last few days on safari in a South African game park, and this was just some of the security advice we were all given. What's interesting about this advice is how well-defined it is. The defenses might not be terribly effective -- you still might get eaten, gored or trampled -- but they're your best hope. Doing something else isn't advised, because animals do the same things over and over again. These are security countermeasures against specific tactics.
Lions and leopards learn tactics that work for them, and I was taught tactics to defend myself. Humans are intelligent, and that means we are more adaptable than animals. But we're also, generally speaking, lazy and stupid; and, like a lion or hyena, we will repeat tactics that work. Pickpockets use the same tricks over and over again. So do phishers, and school shooters (.pdf). If improvised explosive devices didn't work often enough, Iraqi insurgents would do something else.
So security against people generally focuses on tactics as well.
A friend of mine recently asked me where she should hide her jewelry in her apartment, so that burglars wouldn't find it. Burglars tend to look in the same places all the time -- dresser tops, night tables, dresser drawers, bathroom counters -- so hiding valuables somewhere else is more likely to be effective, especially against a burglar who is pressed for time. Leave decoy cash and jewelry in an obvious place so a burglar will think he's found your stash and then leave. Again, there's no guarantee of success, but it's your best hope.
The key to these countermeasures is to find the pattern: the common attack tactic that is worth defending against. That takes data. A single instance of an attack that didn't work -- liquid bombs, shoe bombs -- or one instance that did -- 9/11 -- is not a pattern. Implementing defensive tactics against them is the same as my safari guide saying: "We've only ever heard of one tourist encountering a lion. He stared it down and survived. Another tourist tried the same thing with a leopard, and he got eaten. So when you see a lion...." The advice I was given was based on thousands of years of collective wisdom from people encountering African animals again and again.
Compare this with the Transportation Security Administration's approach. With every unique threat, TSA implements a countermeasure with no basis to say that it helps, or that the threat will ever recur.
Furthermore, human attackers can adapt more quickly than lions. A lion won't learn that he should ignore people who stare him down, and eat them anyway. But people will learn. Burglars now know the common "secret" places people hide their valuables -- the toilet, cereal boxes, the refrigerator and freezer, the medicine cabinet, under the bed -- and look there. I told my friend to find a different secret place, and to put decoy valuables in a more obvious place.
This is the arms race of security. Common attack tactics result in common countermeasures. Eventually, those countermeasures will be evaded and new attack tactics developed. These, in turn, require new countermeasures. You can easily see this in the constant arms race that is credit card fraud, ATM fraud or automobile theft.
The result of these tactic-specific security countermeasures is to make the attacker go elsewhere. For the most part, the attacker doesn't particularly care about the target. Lions don't care who or what they eat; to a lion, you're just a conveniently packaged bag of protein. Burglars don't care which house they rob, and terrorists don't care who they kill. If your countermeasure makes the lion attack an impala instead of you, or if your burglar alarm makes the burglar rob the house next door instead of yours, that's a win for you.
Tactics matter less if the attacker is after you personally. If, for example, you have a priceless painting hanging in your living room and the burglar knows it, he's not going to rob the house next door instead -- even if you have a burglar alarm. He's going to figure out how to defeat your system. Or he'll stop you at gunpoint and force you to open the door. Or he'll pose as an air-conditioner repairman. What matters is the target, and a good attacker will consider a variety of tactics to reach his target.
This approach requires a different kind of countermeasure, but it's still well-understood in the security world. For people, it's what alarm companies, insurance companies and bodyguards specialize in. President Bush needs a different level of protection against targeted attacks than Bill Gates does, and I need a different level of protection than either of them. It would be foolish of me to hire bodyguards in case someone was targeting me for robbery or kidnapping. Yes, I would be more secure, but it's not a good security trade-off.
Al-Qaida terrorism is different yet again. The goal is to terrorize. It doesn't care about the target, but it doesn't have any pattern of tactic, either. Given that, the best way to spend our counterterrorism dollar is on intelligence, investigation and emergency response. And to refuse to be terrorized.
These measures are effective because they don't assume any particular tactic, and they don't assume any particular target. We should only apply specific countermeasures when the cost-benefit ratio makes sense (reinforcing airplane cockpit doors) or when a specific tactic is repeatedly observed (lions attacking people who don't stare them down). Otherwise, general countermeasures are far more effective a defense.
Bruce Schneier is the CTO of BT Counterpane and the author of Beyond Fear: Thinking Sensibly About Security in an Uncertain World.
Monday, June 04, 2007
The Horse Whisperer
Memorable quote (s) from the movie:
Tom Booker (Robert Redford): Sometimes what seems like surrender isn't surrender at all. It's about what's going on in our hearts. About seeing clearly the way life is and accepting it and being true to it, whatever the pain, because the pain of not being true to it is far, far greater.
Tom Booker (Robert Redford): Sometimes what seems like surrender isn't surrender at all. It's about what's going on in our hearts. About seeing clearly the way life is and accepting it and being true to it, whatever the pain, because the pain of not being true to it is far, far greater.
The Jewelry Market In Japan: 2020
Yasukazu Suwa is an insider and an expert. He is a well-known writer on colored stones and well respected in the industry.
Yasukazu Suwa (President, Suwa & Sons, Inc, Tokyo, Japan) writes:
It took about 2700 years to mine and fashion an estimated 0.8 tons of diamonds before the South African discovery in 1867. Currently, about 3.6 tons of polished diamonds are produced each year. Since the beginning of the 20th century, annual diamond mining production has tripled every 30 years. Nevertheless, if all the diamonds polished since the beginning of time were brought together, they would only fill a single double-decker bus.
In addition, only a small percentage of gemstone production is of the finest quality. This percentage get even smaller as production increases. More than ever, we must realize that truly fine gemstones are entrusted to us by nature. After individuals own them for a relatively short time, these gems change hands, either as heirlooms or as estate pieces. As the world market becomes more borderless, fine gemstones and jewelry circulate freely—back and forth between the United States, Europe, Japan, China, and so on. Since new production of fine quality gemstones is limited, recirculation is a major source of high quality material.
Advances in treatments make it possible to convert some previously unusable material into beautiful stones, but these lack the rarity of naturally beautiful gems. Synthetic stones might be attractive, but because theoretically there are no limitations to the quantity that can be produced over time, again they lack the rarity intrinsic to the value of a natural gem.
The current Japanese jewelry market
The emergence of the modern Japanese market began around 1960. Japan’s share of global loose diamond imports rose to 20% by 1985, peaked at 34% in 1991, then declined to 12% by 2005; currently, its share of the world retail market for jewelry is about 10%. Meanwhile, the nation’s retail market shrank from 3 trillion yen to 1.3 trillion between 1991 and 2005.
In 1985, the relative values of Japanese imports of diamonds, colored stones, and finished jewelry were 70%, 15%, and 15%, respectively. By 2005, this distribution had changed to 46%, 6%, and 48%. Diamond imports fell due to a drastic drop in sales of small-carat-size engagement rings. Relative imports of finished jewelry increased as about half the domestic manufacturers went out of business. This increase included super brand goods as well as less expensive jewelry from Thailand, China, and India.
Twenty years ago, most Japanese consumers saw themselves as comfortably middle class. Today, 80% of the population feels that they are in the lower middle class, and few feel that they are rich. The Japanese jewelry business must now deal with two very different market segments.
Looking forward
The future holds a number of scenarios for Japan and the global jewelry industry:
1. Japan will maintain its 10% share of the world’s polished diamond market through 2020, but jewelry imports will continue to grow relative to loose gemstone imports. Meanwhile, the jewelry market will become more polarized. Japan’s high end consumers will prefer rare, high quality untreated gemstones, and they will be asset conscious and more global in their purchases. The faster growing low end market will be dominated by commercial, treated, and even synthetic stones; these shoppers will be more price conscious and purchase locally. Within this polarized market, high end gemstone oriented jewelry will remain the driving force behind all jewelry sales. The low end jewelry market will follow the trends and styles that are established by the more affluent market.
2. Branding and traceability will be more important to consumers worldwide. Where jewelry is made will matter less to consumers, while a manufacturer’s reputation for quality and reliability will mean more. Traceability and positive determination of country of origin will become more important as consumers become more sensitive to issues such as conflict diamonds, child labor in developing countries, and other political and human rights concerns.
3. Recirculation will be more prevalent in the fine jewelry market. Just as the supply of gemstones is now more global, customers for fine jewelry are more mobile than ever. They purchase fine quality gemstone oriented jewelry from all over the world. This trend will continue in the future. The role of gemological laboratories in distinguishing country of origin and methods of treatment will become increasingly important as fine qualities circulate between markets.
Yasukazu Suwa (President, Suwa & Sons, Inc, Tokyo, Japan) writes:
It took about 2700 years to mine and fashion an estimated 0.8 tons of diamonds before the South African discovery in 1867. Currently, about 3.6 tons of polished diamonds are produced each year. Since the beginning of the 20th century, annual diamond mining production has tripled every 30 years. Nevertheless, if all the diamonds polished since the beginning of time were brought together, they would only fill a single double-decker bus.
In addition, only a small percentage of gemstone production is of the finest quality. This percentage get even smaller as production increases. More than ever, we must realize that truly fine gemstones are entrusted to us by nature. After individuals own them for a relatively short time, these gems change hands, either as heirlooms or as estate pieces. As the world market becomes more borderless, fine gemstones and jewelry circulate freely—back and forth between the United States, Europe, Japan, China, and so on. Since new production of fine quality gemstones is limited, recirculation is a major source of high quality material.
Advances in treatments make it possible to convert some previously unusable material into beautiful stones, but these lack the rarity of naturally beautiful gems. Synthetic stones might be attractive, but because theoretically there are no limitations to the quantity that can be produced over time, again they lack the rarity intrinsic to the value of a natural gem.
The current Japanese jewelry market
The emergence of the modern Japanese market began around 1960. Japan’s share of global loose diamond imports rose to 20% by 1985, peaked at 34% in 1991, then declined to 12% by 2005; currently, its share of the world retail market for jewelry is about 10%. Meanwhile, the nation’s retail market shrank from 3 trillion yen to 1.3 trillion between 1991 and 2005.
In 1985, the relative values of Japanese imports of diamonds, colored stones, and finished jewelry were 70%, 15%, and 15%, respectively. By 2005, this distribution had changed to 46%, 6%, and 48%. Diamond imports fell due to a drastic drop in sales of small-carat-size engagement rings. Relative imports of finished jewelry increased as about half the domestic manufacturers went out of business. This increase included super brand goods as well as less expensive jewelry from Thailand, China, and India.
Twenty years ago, most Japanese consumers saw themselves as comfortably middle class. Today, 80% of the population feels that they are in the lower middle class, and few feel that they are rich. The Japanese jewelry business must now deal with two very different market segments.
Looking forward
The future holds a number of scenarios for Japan and the global jewelry industry:
1. Japan will maintain its 10% share of the world’s polished diamond market through 2020, but jewelry imports will continue to grow relative to loose gemstone imports. Meanwhile, the jewelry market will become more polarized. Japan’s high end consumers will prefer rare, high quality untreated gemstones, and they will be asset conscious and more global in their purchases. The faster growing low end market will be dominated by commercial, treated, and even synthetic stones; these shoppers will be more price conscious and purchase locally. Within this polarized market, high end gemstone oriented jewelry will remain the driving force behind all jewelry sales. The low end jewelry market will follow the trends and styles that are established by the more affluent market.
2. Branding and traceability will be more important to consumers worldwide. Where jewelry is made will matter less to consumers, while a manufacturer’s reputation for quality and reliability will mean more. Traceability and positive determination of country of origin will become more important as consumers become more sensitive to issues such as conflict diamonds, child labor in developing countries, and other political and human rights concerns.
3. Recirculation will be more prevalent in the fine jewelry market. Just as the supply of gemstones is now more global, customers for fine jewelry are more mobile than ever. They purchase fine quality gemstone oriented jewelry from all over the world. This trend will continue in the future. The role of gemological laboratories in distinguishing country of origin and methods of treatment will become increasingly important as fine qualities circulate between markets.
How To Extract Gold
(via The National Geographic Magazine)
Some 2½ tons of rock must be processed to produce an ounce of gold and a sliver of silver.
1. Like a mighty nutcracker, steel jaws shatter ore into softball-size fragments. Hand sorters discard pieces lacking gold.
2. After further crushing, the ore mixes with water and enters a revolving cylinder, to be pulverized by tumbling steel balls or bars.
3. Air jets and mechanical arms in agitator tanks mix cyanide into powdered ore and water, called slime. This releases gold from rock.
4. The gold-cyanide solution and slime funnel into vast tanks where the rock particles slowly sink. The clarified solution is fed into filtrations units.
5. Gold-cyanide solution is filtered to strain out any remaining rock particles, and then is deaerated.
6. Zinc dust added to the solution separates the cyanide from the gold, which emerges as an impure powder.
7. The gold is melted with fluxes such as borax. As the metal cools in the bottom of a conical mold, the fluxes combine with impurities and float as slag.
8. Final product: a shining ‘button’ 90 percent gold, the rest silver. Further processing at a central refinery yields the 99.6 percent pure gold.
Some 2½ tons of rock must be processed to produce an ounce of gold and a sliver of silver.
1. Like a mighty nutcracker, steel jaws shatter ore into softball-size fragments. Hand sorters discard pieces lacking gold.
2. After further crushing, the ore mixes with water and enters a revolving cylinder, to be pulverized by tumbling steel balls or bars.
3. Air jets and mechanical arms in agitator tanks mix cyanide into powdered ore and water, called slime. This releases gold from rock.
4. The gold-cyanide solution and slime funnel into vast tanks where the rock particles slowly sink. The clarified solution is fed into filtrations units.
5. Gold-cyanide solution is filtered to strain out any remaining rock particles, and then is deaerated.
6. Zinc dust added to the solution separates the cyanide from the gold, which emerges as an impure powder.
7. The gold is melted with fluxes such as borax. As the metal cools in the bottom of a conical mold, the fluxes combine with impurities and float as slag.
8. Final product: a shining ‘button’ 90 percent gold, the rest silver. Further processing at a central refinery yields the 99.6 percent pure gold.
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