The analysis by A J A (Bram) Janse (Diamond Consultant, Perth, Western Australia) is really interesting. He summarizes his views (via Gems & Gemology, Spring 2007) as follows:
The history of modern diamond production spans 135 years. Although alluvial deposits have been known since antiquity, diamond production from primary deposits (kimberlites and lamproites) commenced only in 1870s and has increased by leaps and bounds ever since to a staggering total of 4.5 billion carats.
It is interesting to note that nearly 20% of this total was produced during the last five years. During the last 10, nine new mines have commenced production or come very close: Nyurba and Arkhangelskaya (Russia); Ekati, Diavik, and Jericho (Canada); Murowa (Zimbabwe); and Catoca, Camafuca, Camatchia, and Camagico (Angola). Four additional advanced projects are waiting in the wings: Snap Lake, Victor, and Gahcho Kué (Canada); and Grib (Russia). This will more than counterbalance the closing of seven old mines. As it is predicted that demand for rough will outstrip production during the next five years, and a gap of $20 million in supply and demand by 2015 has been quoted, this new production can easily be accommodated in the diamond market.
Primary deposits were first discovered in South Africa and exploration spread from there to identify diamond-producing pipes in Tanzania (1940s), Siberia (1950s), Botswana (1960s), Angola (1970s), Australia and northwest Russia (1980s), and Canada and northwest Russia (1990s). Thus, it appears that at least one major diamond mine or field has been discovered every 10 years since the 1940s. If this trend continues, then a major new discovery is imminent. This may perhaps be in China, where prospecting for diamonds is being vigorously pursued at present.
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