More On The Black Swan Concept

(via Emergic) The ideas behind Mediocristan and Extremistan in Nassim Taleb’s “The BlackSwan” are worth exploring in more depth. Chetan Parikh has reproduced a table from the book which explains the differences between Mediocristan and Extremistan.

The Portfolio wrote:
N.N.T., who lives in New York and has taught at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst, previously traded derivatives on Wall Street. The academics who drive him to tears are the ones who have explained—or misexplained—his old profession. They think that markets are from Mediocristan when in fact they inhabit Extremistan.

Say what? Mediocristan is the terrain of the ordinary, the part of the world that conforms to the bell curve. It answers to statistics and knowable probabilities. Height resides in Mediocristan. You may find one 7-footer on your block, almost certainly not two. Experience (and biology) enable us to frame the odds. Weight is also from Mediocristan. Pick any 1,000 people and their average weight will be close to that of the general population (even if you include the world’s fattest person). Personal wealth, however, is from Extremistan. For instance, the average wealth of 1,000 people will be very different if one of those people is Bill Gates.

This distinction is potent. In Extremistan, past events are a faulty guide to projecting the future. Gates may be the world’s richest person, but it isn’t unthinkable that someday, someone (at Google, perhaps?) will be twice as rich. Wars also reside in Extremistan. Prior to World War II, the planet had never experienced a conflict as terrible. Then we did. Suppose you frequent a pond. Day after day you see swans—always white. Naturally (but incorrectly) you presume that all swans are white. World War II was a black swan—horrific and unpredictable.

The Financial Times added:
Taleb claims that there are too many extreme events in securities markets for such markets to be located in Mediocristan. The black swan of October 1987, when the Dow Jones index fell by about 20 per cent, was the first trigger for his personal reassessment. The event was simply outside the realms of possibility in classical statistics. Taleb would first substitute power laws and the mathematics of extreme statistics for the reassurance of normal distributions. But this still gives more credence to economists and financial analysts than he allows. Probabilities can be defined and predictions made only if the events that are the subject of the probabilities and predictions can be described. Donald Rumsfeld distinguished known unknowns and unknown unknowns. Statistics, old and new, deal with known unknowns. Taleb’s world is determined by unknown unknowns - black swans.

No one, he says, could have predicted the invention of the wheel or measured the probability that the wheel would be invented, because if you could do either of these things you would already have invented the wheel. The invention of the wheel was a black swan.

Arlene Goldbard went further:
Taleb argues convincingly that we treat far too much of our reality as if it were Mediocristan when in fact much of it often behaves like Extremistan, where there are occasional “black swans” (his name for the unexpected event and the title of his most recent book) among the white. So, for example, out of the many thousands of books, films and recordings released each year, a small number will account for the largest part of sales, and it is not possible to predict with certainty which of the many works released will find black swan-style success (or failure). Indeed, in any endeavor susceptible to notable, unpredictable exceptions, no amount of examining the past will enable us to foretell the future.What’s going on here? Taleb discusses many factors contributing to our tendency to see our world as Mediocristan. There is the fact that our brains evolved long ago to deal with a world with many fewer variables, much less organized information, and a vastly smaller number of theories to explain them. The more complex any given situation, the larger number of examples you need to understand what is happening there. For instance, sampling the sales of a few dozen published books each year won’t tell you much about the prospects of the thousands of others not sampled. It’s just as likely as not that your sample would include one or more black swans—unexpectedly huge winners or losers—so anything you might conclude based on it would not be generalizable to the rest.

The Shipping News

Memorable quote (s) from the movie:

Billy (Gordon Pinsent): It's finding the center of your story, the beating heart of it, that's what makes a reporter. You have to start by making up some headlines. You know: short, punchy, dramatic headlines. Now, have a look, what do you see? Tell me the headline.

Quoyle (Kevin Spacey): Horizon Fills With Dark Clouds?

Billy (Gordon Pinsent): Imminent Storm Threatens Village.

Quoyle (Kevin Spacey): But what if no storm comes?

Billy (Gordon Pinsent): Village Spared From Deadly Storm.

The 4-Hour Workweek

(via Emergic) The book by Timothy Ferriss promises:

- How to outsource your life and do whatever you want for a year, only to return to a bank account 50% larger than before you left.

- How blue-chip escape artists travel the world without quitting their jobs.

- How to eliminate 50% of your work in 48 hours using the principles of little-known European economists.

- How to train your boss to value performance over presence, or kill your job (or company) if it's beyond repair.

- How to trade a long-haul career for short work bursts and frequent “mini-retirements”.

- What automated cash-flow "muses" are and how to create one in 2-4 weeks.

- How to cultivate selective ignorance—and create time—with a low-information diet.

- Management secrets of Remote Control CEOs.

- The crucial difference between absolute and relative income.

- How to get free housing worldwide and airfare at 50-80% off.

- How to fill the void and creating meaning after removing work and the office.

The Italian And European Goldsmith Industry: Current Status And Possible Future Scenarios

Here is an insider view on the state of the European jewelry landscape. Even though European craftsmanship and branding may have raised the profile of their products during the course, they are faced with new realities. India and China may be the real threats in the long run. The numbers are on their side, but still European products have a perceived value in the emerging markets due to branding and that special look and feel. It's all in the state of mind of most consumers. The only way to stay on top will be to innovate and find your own niche in the already crowded jewelry market (s) of the world.

Leopoldo Poli (Co-owner, La Nouvelle Bague, Florence, Italy) writes:

Given the social, political, and cultural events of the last decade, the question before us is whether there will be genuine opportunities for growth and development for the Italian and European goldsmith industries. Recent events have generated crises and related difficulties, but in markets the word crisis is always synonymous with opportunity, and opportunities are truly what make the difference in the success of a company. The challenge for the next decade or two will be to transform some players in the goldsmith world from passive into active participants who turn change into opportunities.

Crisis
The economic crisis throughout Europe has put a growing number of jewelry companies at risk. Problems related to unemployment and the erosion of salaries has made the purchasing power of the middle class precarious. Only companies that know how to invest in the emotions of their clientele—persuading them to spend less in other luxury areas—have maintained a solid market share. Italy, in particular, has been at a disadvantage due to the introduction of the euro.

The second crisis is foreign competition. China, India, and Turkey, all new players on international markets, have started exporting products of increasingly high quality, benefiting from lower costs due to their highly competitive local wages.

Third, there is a crisis in the motivation to acquire gold jewelry. Other consumer market segments have taken over the role of jewelry, which has witnessed a decline in the myth of ostentation together with the emergence of functionality—new electronic gadgets, exotic travel and health spas.

Today’s European players
Today, there are four main players in Europe’s gem and jewelry industry, which have mixed prospects for the future:

1. Historic jewelry brands
They have their own history, combined with a strong tradition in both production and marketing. These firms can be expected to maintain a sizable market share, though it has been diminished by producers from lower-wage nations. The ones who will remain strong are those who organize themselves in a market-oriented way, seizing new opportunities, anticipating trends, and communicating the product emotionally via brand identity.

2. Emerging steel and silver brands
These young companies entered the market in response to the need for a new type of jewel, precious in design if not necessarily in the materials used. They have built on emotion and symbolism of their product, aiming it at the youth market. The winners will be those who know best how to interpret the trend for the hot metals, by discovering materials and designs that fit in with current styles.

3. Fashion companies
These are fashion brands that have entered the jewelry market in order to deliver a total look. They put forward industrial products that make an effort to present a distinctive design and are sophisticated technologically, flaunting their Italian workmanship.

4. Small artisanal companies
These are small, traditional manufacturing companies that develop their brands and are characterized by high quality craftsmanship. Some are disappearing because others have eroded their market share, and some are winners thanks to the intrinsic strength of the artisanal product. Those companies that put forward innovative designs, distinct from mass-produced items, will succeed. Opportunities for these companies are both in the specialist sector serving the big brands, and in the promotion of their own brands with high quality product.

Trends and the Trendsetter
The strength of a brand is measured in emotional terms; the key is to conduct a dialogue in a differentiated way with one’s clientele. Choosing the right communication means significantly enhancing the value of a product so that a larger slice of the population will want to trade up.

In every area of business, the most enthusiastic client is the trendsetter. Successful producers cater to tastemakers who influence and infect other groups of consumers. By knowing the trendsetters and working with them, we can achieve success without excessive investments in advertisement, because the product is truly exceptional.

Industrial production that lacks added value will be penalized. Therefore, we should continue to develop products with strong artisanal characteristics that value their origins and traditions. Italy has an enviable tradition of fashion and design. In this respect, our competitors are at a disadvantage because they are not creators of trends.

Small Jewellers Join Hands To Create Brands

I think it's a bold move by small jewelers in India. Other jewelry markets in the world may want to follow up with the concept. The effectiveness may depend on the delivery mechanism. How are they going to reach the middle + bottom of the pyramid? Only time will tell.

Tejal A Deshpande writes:

This is one trend that could redefine modern retail in India. As the large jewellery brands snatch market share away from smaller players, the small jewellers (the mom-and-pop equivalent of grocery retail outlets) are coming together to form an umbrella brand and share a common marketing strategy.

Industry experts indicated that this generic effort will enhance product availability through common sourcing and help small retailers climb up the value chain. "Jewellery retailing has to be perceived as a focused marketing activity as the concept of loyal customers is a myth. With the entry of new players and competition from other sectors, there is a need to retain existing customers and attract new ones," said Dharmesh Sodah, director, World Gold Council.

Indian consumers generally make jewellery purchases from family jewellers. However, with the entry of branded players in the market, the consumers, especially the younger lot, are graduating to buying branded jewellery. This trend is affecting the neighbourhood jeweller who is not a franchisee for the big brands such as Tanishq, Gili and others.

According to industry experts, individual entrepreneurs are uniting to offer a uniform retail experience. For instance, four to five jewellers from different parts of Mumbai will form an umbrella brand and adopt common marketing and advertising strategy.

Ashok Minawala, president, Gems and Jewellery Federation said, "The emergence of organised retail will make jewellery industry more professional and prepared to face challenges. Companies with better systems and management will have upper edge on dictating trends in retailing." He mentioned that entry of corporate firms into retail would bring in new buyers, thus promoting the growth of jewellery manufacturers and wholesalers.

Another significant trend in jewellery retailing is penetration in the rural areas. Tanishq has started focusing on the lower end of the market through its brand, Gold Plus. This targets customers who buy gold as an investment product rather than for immediate use. The industry is expecting increased activity in the rural sector, with jewellers opening shops in the smaller markets. "While branded jewellery is becoming popular in cities, the rural population buys jewellery for sentimental and religious values such as weddings and investments. Local jewellers have started opening shops at the district and taluka levels for catering to the newer markets," said Fatehchand Ranka of Pune-based Ranka Jewellers.

The Rs 70,000 crore Indian gems and jewellery industry is also witnessing a tie-up of brands with large format retailers. Goldiam International the manufacturer of Ola brand of silver jewellery, has tied up with Future Group to develop jewellery for Gold Bazaar.

More info @ http://www.rediff.com/money/2007/jun/06brand.htm

More On The Black Swan Concept

(via Emergic)

Here is what the Economist has to say about Nassim Taleb’s “The BlackSwan”:

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a professor of the sciences of uncertainty (who gave us “known unknowns”), has no time for the “charlatans” who think they can map the future. Forget the important things: we can't even get it right when estimating the cost of a building—witness the massively over budget Sydney Opera House or the new Wembley Stadium.

The problem is that almost all forecasters work within the parameters of the Gaussian bell curve, which ignores large deviations and thus fails to take account of “Black Swans”. Mr Taleb defines a Black Swan as an event that is unexpected, has an extreme impact and is made to seem predictable by explanations concocted afterwards. It can be both positive and negative. Examples include the September 11th 2001 attacks and the rise of the internet. Smaller shocks, such as novels and pop acts whose popularity explodes thanks to word of mouth, can also be Black Swans.

This is what The Wall Street Journal wrote:

The power-law distribution, by contrast [to the bell-curve distribution], would seem to have little to recommend it. Not only does it disproportionately reward the few, but it also turns out to be notoriously difficult to derive with precision. The most important events may occur so rarely that existing data points can never truly assure us that the future won't look very different from the present. We can be fairly certain that we will never meet anyone 14-feet tall, but it is entirely possible that, over time, we will hear of a man twice as rich as Bill Gates or witness a market crash twice as devastating as that of October 1987.

The problem, insists Mr. Taleb, is that most of the time we are in the land of the power law and don't know it…If we accept Mr. Taleb's premise about power-law ascendancy, we are left with a troubling question: How do you function in a world where accurate prediction is rarely possible, where history isn't a reliable guide to the future and where the most important events cannot be anticipated?

Mr. Taleb presents a range of answers--be prepared for various outcomes, he says, and don't rush for buses--but it's clear that he remains slightly vexed by the world he describes so vividly. Then again, beatific serenity may not be the goal here. As Mr. Taleb warns, certitude is likely to be found only in a fool's (bell-curve) paradise, where we choose the comfort of the "precisely wrong" over the challenge of the "broadly correct." Beneath Mr. Taleb's blustery rhetoric lives a surprisingly humble soul who has chosen to follow a demanding and somewhat lonely path.

Niall Ferguson wrote in The Telegraph:

Taleb's central point, then, is that we are too much influenced by instinct, history, Plato and Gauss. We assume the entire world is "Mediocristan", whereas in reality large swathes of it are "Extremistan".

The trouble is that it is much harder to live with this insight than to live without it. As Taleb's critics in the financial world will tell you (and he himself admits), merely insuring yourself against fat tail events does not constitute a profitable trading strategy. Knowing that world wars can happen roughly twice a century is like knowing that a student can run amok roughly once a decade: it doesn't allow you to predict which diplomatic/personality crisis will be the lethal one.

For practical purposes, it turns out we humans prefer to work with predictions and forecasts, even when they are nearly always wrong. We prefer to regard financial markets as casinos (what Taleb calls "the ludic fallacy" that odds are always calculable), even when they clearly aren't. And we resist paying excessive insurance premiums to cover ourselves against very remote contingencies.

Black Swan: Definition

I have always been curious about the Black Swan concept. Then it dawned upon me that when you look at yourself and the strange events that follow nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. It becomes a unique total internal reflection. I think this concept should have practical applications in the colored stone and diamond industry. Black Swan is a one hundred carat statement + it's priceless.

Business World spoke to Nassim Taleb. Excerpts from the interview:

What is a Black Swan?
Medieval Europeans had only ever seen white swans. In fact, any impossible event was termed a ‘black swan’. So, when the first settlers reached Australia, they were shocked to find black swans all over! Taleb's black swans are those events that were once thought impossible, but when they occur, hit hard. In this extract, he writes about how we create narratives after ‘black swan’ events; making them seem predictable after they occur.

Why are black swans important?
People say “Taleb wants us to worry about meteorites hitting Earth.” I want to help people navigate in a world where we don’t have a clear understanding of reality. Black Swan is essentially a map of how to deal with such a reality. The book distinguished between [two imaginary places] Mediocristan and Extremistan. In Mediocristan, variations in any sample do not result in large deviations from the average. The question, then, is which domains or areas have highly consequential variables? These places are Extremistan.…What are some of the classic examples of black swan events? A classic black swan event is the First War (World War I). It was not as predictable as people believe it was. Then you have all this technology — computers, lasers. Their future uses could never be predicted when they were invented.

Wired also interviews Nassim Taleb:

With better models and more computational power, won't we get better at predicting Black Swans?
We know from chaos theory that even if you had a perfect model of the world, you'd need infinite precision in order to predict future events. With sociopolitical or economic phenomena, we don't have anything like that. And things are getting worse, not better, because the growing complexity of the world dwarfs any improvement in sophistication or computational power.

So what do we do? If we can't forecast the really important things, how do we act?
You need to ask, "If the Black Swan hits me, will it help me or hurt me?" You cannot figure out the probability of a Black Swan hitting. But if you're in a business that's prone to negative Black Swans, like catastrophe insurance, I advise you not to take your forecasting seriously — and to think about getting into a different business. You don't want to be a sucker. What you want are situations where you can have as much of the good uncertainty as possible, where nothing too bad can happen to you, and where you have what I call free options. All of technology, really, is about maximizing free options. It's like venture capital: Most of the money you make is from things you weren't looking for. But you find them only if you search.

Wikipedia has more on Nassim Taleb.

Source Type Classification Of Gem Corundum

I totally agree with Shane McClure because I understand the methodology, but many don't. As always, the problem is finding consensus among the gem dealers, colored stone grading experts, retailers and consumers. Today the gem trade and lab gemologists are having a hard time finding the 'sweet words' to convey the 'good news' to the consumers in a tone that makes sense. Keep trying.

Shane F McClure (GIA) writes:

The visual characteristics that gemologists and gem traders look for when examining a gemstone—such as hue, tone, saturation, and diaphenity—are the direct result of geologic environment in which the stone formed. This environment determines the stone’s chemical composition, growth structures, and inclusions suites, all of which affect its overall appearance. These factors are common for all gems, but are particularly significant in corundum.

While many different types of growth environments are possible, for corundum they can be broadly categorized into two main groups: metamorphic and magma-related; the later will be referred to simply as magmatic in this abstract. The largest distinction between these environments is that the metamorphic corundum formed in the earth’s upper crust, whereas the magmatic corundum crystallized much deeper in the earth at mid-crust or lower-crust/mantle levels. Eruptive forces are necessary to transport corundum from the latter group to the earth’s surface (typically in all alkali basaltic magma), so it is referred to as magmatic. While these two broad categories of sources for corundum may be readily distinguished by a combination of standard gemological and advanced analytical techniques, they can also commonly be recognized visually by a knowledgeable observer.

Beyond these two broad source designations, there exists a potential to further classify rubies and sapphires of all colors based on their dominant inclusion features and other physical characteristics. These inclusion features may influence the face-up appearance of a ruby or sapphire. For example, ‘milky’ zonal clouds of submicroscopic particles are responsible for the soft appearance or ‘velvety texture’ of blue Kashmir sapphires. Other possible features are concentrations of rutile needles, platelets, and particles that are commonly referred to as silk, which are typical of rubies and sapphires from Mogok, Myanmar (Burma). Such features, although commonly associated with a specific geographic source (e.g., Kashmir or Myanmar), more accurately distinguish a particular type of ruby or sapphire. Each corundum type shares other properties—including absorption spectra, chemical trends, and growth structures—which may be encountered in stones from more than one deposit or country.

What is proposed here is a classification for rubies and sapphires using a system that is objective, repeatable, teachable and relevant. It does not attempt to pinpoint geographic locality or specific deposit, but it does provide information that directly relates to a stone’s appearance and position in the marketplace. The intent is to supply information to the trade that will be useful and consistent in representing their stones, which in turn should benefit the consumer as well.